The Shifting Landscape: A Comparison of College Basketball and the Ascendancy of ARST
College basketball is undergoing a transformation, marked by the increasing impact of freshman players and the rise of programs like Arkansas State (ARST). This article explores the evolving dynamics within college basketball, comparing the traditional landscape with the emerging influence of talented freshmen and the competitive spirit exemplified by teams striving for conference championships and NCAA Tournament berths.
The Maturation of College Basketball
College basketball was supposed to see a dip in talent. Along with losing two full classes - traditional seniors, and the final group of players with an extra year of eligibility because of COVID-19 - the sport also waved goodbye to the top members of a strong freshman class. However, the incoming freshman class had other ideas. The class has completely altered the landscape of the sport. Members of that group will impact the national title race and have a strong presence on All-American and all-conference teams.
The Rise of the Freshmen
The 2025 class has infused college basketball with unprecedented talent and depth. This influx of young stars has challenged the established order, with freshmen making significant contributions to both top-tier programs and emerging contenders. The quantity of superstars is higher than ever, but the depth of this class is also staggering compared to its predecessors.
Several freshmen entered college basketball with elite expectations and as contenders to be the top pick in this June’s NBA Draft. But other five-stars have exceeded expectations, and more unheralded recruits have become vital leaders for teams expected to contend in March. The influx of international newcomers has also been a boon to the sport. Teams have significantly elevated their postseason prospects by seeking overseas talent.
Of the top teams in the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s bracket sneak preview, many counted a freshman as their leading scorer.
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Statistical Evidence of Freshman Impact
To illustrate the impact of freshmen, let’s look at an objective measure. Box Plus/Minus is an all-encompassing statistic that boils down the contributions of an individual player into a single number, with 0.0 being average. It is not perfect, but it allows us to compare player impact over different seasons. Compared to previous years - especially post-COVID-19 - this class is in a unique stratosphere.
Compared to recent seasons, the class is overflowing with major producers. No wonder NBA scouts and teams are salivating over this draft class.
The last few years have seen only a few freshmen crack a certain number in BPM. The group alone has multiple rookies hitting that lofty measure. Over the past few years, only a few freshmen landed in the top 10 of KenPom’s Player of the Year standings. This year, multiple of the top 10 are freshmen. You could construct a first-team All-America squad consisting solely of freshmen and be able to defend it. The star power in this rookie class is simply without parallel.
Zooming in on the stars illustrates only a fraction of this freshman class’s effect. A number of teams in the projected NCAA Tournament field or on the bubble are reliant on freshmen as leaders or role players. Crucial contributors from this freshman class are everywhere.
Implications for March Madness
The lasting image of the season will be the overall impact of the freshman class. Even in the NCAA Tournament, freshmen could decide the outcome. Add in various teams, and half of the top 20 function via freshman engines.
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That is in stark contrast to recent seasons, when fifth-year seniors and experienced squads ruled the postseason. In the past 40 years, only four freshmen have been named Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. There’s a good chance that the MOP recipient will be a fifth such freshman.
Arkansas State and the Sun Belt Conference: A Case Study in Competitive Basketball
The Sun Belt Conference exemplifies the competitive nature of college basketball, where teams like Arkansas State battle for supremacy. Games are often hard-fought, with close margins and dramatic finishes.
The Quest for a Championship
The Troy Trojans men's basketball team won the Sun Belt Conference Championship against the Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Trojans pulled away late in the second half with a run to secure the victory. This win marks the Trojans' first conference championship since 2017 and earns them a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
A late push of offense was just what the doctor ordered for the Trojans. The Troy men's basketball team found its offensive stride behind some free throws and some hard-earned layups en route to a win over Arkansas State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship. It's the Trojans' first title since 2017. With the championship in tow, it'll also be Troy's first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since that same year.
It's one of the hardest things to do, especially in the Sun Belt. There are teams that are very, very close in terms of talent and ability. It's a difficult league. It was a dogfight with Arkansas State. To see it come to fruition, it's absolutely amazing.
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The Trojans were led on offense with an impressive point total, pushing the string of scoring late in the game. Also getting involved was another player with a good point total. While the game started with a tight, physical contest, the teams traded offensive blows for most of the first half into the second frame. Arkansas State led at the half. As the second stanza began, neither team could pull away. For every small burst of offense that one team had, it seemed to be quickly matched by the other.
During a timeout, the coach challenged the guys to guard their yard, that's what we term it. Our guys, they came out from the timeout, and all of a sudden, we started getting stops. Something clicked for us. Coach chewed us out in that media timeout around that 10-minute mark. All year, our thing has been, we get our offense from how good our defense is doing. Once we got our defense going, it flipped the whole script. The Trojans ended the game on a run that put the game out of reach.
Home-Court Advantage and Fan Support
Given most of the Sun Belt Conference team's proximity, there isn't any true "home-court advantage" for anybody. The later timeframe of the game gave more of a home feel as its supporters were able to come out. The Trojan faithful is one of the most "loyal" fanbases. They definitely gave us a lift. They really energized us. I think it helped our defense, without a doubt. We're so super thankful for each and every fan that hopped in the car and made the trip down to this beautiful city. Trojan Nation definitely made a difference for us.
That meant plenty of family and friends could show up to watch the Trojans claim the title.
South Alabama's Victory Over Arkansas State
Trailing by four with under a minute remaining, South Alabama forced overtime and edged Arkansas State in front of a raucous crowd. "We found a way against a really good team. We found a way when things didn't necessarily go our way. We had capable shooters missing pretty clean looks and got beat up on the glass really badly. And they made some big shots in key moments to kind of stretch the lead, but we never stopped, and never wavered. And that's what we're about. I want to give a shout-out to our students and our community - that crowd made a massive difference. That's what a home-court advantage is. That's what it feels like. I could feel it. They gave me chills a couple of times when we came out late, and the students were swag-surfing. That's what it's supposed to look like, and they made it happen for us tonight. South Alabama returns to the Mitchell Center.
Other Examples of College Basketball Games
B.J. Edwards shot well from the field, and scored a good amount of his points in the second half. The team went on a run in a five minute period in the second half to go up by a lot. All five starters for the team scored in the double-digits. Arkansas State was led by a player, who scored a good amount, and another player added a good amount. The Red Wolves scored the first few points of the game before the team responded with a 3-pointer to come within one.
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