NCAA Football 25: Early Team Rankings Predictions

The anticipation for the 2025 college football season is already building, and with it comes the inevitable speculation about team rankings. Several factors come into play when assessing a team's potential, including past performance, returning players, coaching changes, and strength of schedule. With conference championship games and auto-bids determining some teams' guaranteed spots in the playoff bracket, let's take an early look at how teams might stack up in the preseason rankings.

Projecting the Initial CFP Rankings

The College Football Playoff (CFP) committee considers various data points when ranking teams, including head-to-head results, strength of schedule, and performance against ranked opponents. Predicting these rankings involves analyzing these factors and anticipating how the committee will weigh them.

Top Contenders:

Penn State: Phil Steele's preseason rankings place Penn State at the top. The Nittany Lions boast a returning quarterback in Drew Allar, lead rushers Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and the addition of Jim Knowles to lead the defense.
Notre Dame: Ranked second by Phil Steele, Notre Dame is expected to be a strong contender.
Texas: With a strong program, Texas is ranked third by Phil Steele.
Alabama: Despite a loss in the SEC Championship, Alabama remains a formidable team, ranked fourth.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes will potentially have just one win over a team ranked in the first CFP rankings, Texas, which could lead to some on the committee calling for the Buckeyes to drop from the top spot. Phil Steele ranks them fifth.
Clemson: Ranked sixth by Phil Steele.
Georgia: The SEC champ will be No. 2, especially given UGA's No. 1 strength of schedule. Phil Steele ranks them seventh.
Oklahoma: Ranked eighth by Phil Steele.
Texas A&M: Ranked ninth by Phil Steele.
Florida: Ranked tenth by Phil Steele.

Other Ranked Teams (according to Phil Steele):

LSU
Michigan
Oregon
Miami
Arizona State
Indiana
Illinois
Baylor
Utah
Tennessee
USC
Ole Miss
SMU
Auburn
Texas Tech
TCU
South Carolina
Iowa State
Louisville
Kansas State
Iowa
Wisconsin
Arkansas
Pittsburgh
Nebraska
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Vanderbilt
Washington
BYU
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati
Missouri
Rutgers
Minnesota
Houston
Boise State
Duke
Kansas
Kentucky
NC State
UCLA
Colorado
Michigan State
Mississippi State
Arizona
North Carolina
Tulane
USF
UTSA
Virginia
Boston College
Northwestern
West Virginia
Memphis
Cal
James Madison
Toledo

Teams on the Bubble:

Several teams could find themselves on the fringes of the top 25, with their fate depending on the committee's evaluation of their strengths and weaknesses. Factors such as late-season performance and the outcomes of conference championship games can significantly impact these teams' rankings.

Conference Champions and Auto-Bids

Conference championship games often carry significant weight in the eyes of the CFP committee. A decisive win in a major conference championship can solidify a team's place in the top 25 and potentially earn them an auto-bid to the playoff. Conversely, a loss can severely damage a team's ranking and playoff hopes.

For example, Duke is 7-5. But the Blue Devils won the ACC Championship. James Madison is 11-1. It was ranked last week at No. 25. The JMU Dukes then won the Sun Belt title.

Potential for Surprises

As with any preseason ranking, there is always the potential for surprises. Teams that exceed expectations or suffer unexpected losses can quickly climb or fall in the rankings. Injuries to key players, coaching changes, and unforeseen upsets can all contribute to volatility in the college football landscape.

The Bottom of the Barrel

At the other end of the spectrum, some teams face a steep uphill battle to competitiveness. Kent State is projected to be the worst team in college football. The Golden Flashes check in at No. 136 in Phil Steele’s preseason 136-team college football rankings.

The Most Average Team

Toledo is smack dab in the middle of Phil Steele’s 136-team rankings, in the No. 68 position.

Factors Influencing the Committee's Decisions

Several factors will influence the committee's decisions when formulating the initial CFP rankings:

Head-to-Head Results: Wins and losses against other ranked teams carry significant weight.
Strength of Schedule: A challenging schedule with multiple games against top opponents can boost a team's ranking.
Conference Championships: Winning a major conference championship is a significant accomplishment that can impress the committee.
Late-Season Performance: Teams that finish the season strong often receive a boost in the rankings.
Coaching Changes: New coaches can bring fresh perspectives and strategies that impact a team's performance.

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