Optimizing College Basketball Starting Lineups: A Data-Driven Approach

College basketball is a complex game where strategy and player combinations can significantly impact a team's success. Coaches are constantly seeking the optimal starting lineup and rotation to maximize their team's potential. This article explores the intricacies of college basketball starting lineup strategies, examining how data analysis, player strengths, and in-game adjustments play crucial roles in achieving victory.

The Importance of Data Analysis

In today's college basketball landscape, data analysis has become an indispensable tool for coaches. Tools like Evan Miya's premium version are used by many college coaches to optimize their lineups. These tools provide valuable insights into player performance, lineup effectiveness, and potential matchups. By analyzing various metrics, coaches can identify strengths and weaknesses within their team and make informed decisions about starting lineups and rotations.

However, it's important to approach data analysis with caution. Small sample sizes can be misleading, and analytical approaches operate under the law of large numbers. A single basketball game involves randomness, and optimizing probabilities only goes so far.

Evaluating Lineup Combinations

One approach to optimizing lineups is to analyze different combinations of players and their performance metrics. By examining lineups with a minimum number of offensive possessions, coaches can identify which combinations are most effective on both offense and defense.

For example, one might find that lineups with a particular player, such as Foster, consistently underperform. Conversely, some lineups perform well even without a key player like Flagg. This information can help coaches make strategic decisions about player rotations and game plans.

A deeper dive into specific lineups can reveal even more insights. For example, a lineup of Brown/Gillis/James/Kon/Tyrese showed an Ortg of 167.8 and a Drtg of 55.9. Both of those numbers are great. To get those numbers, Duke had a 78.9% EFG while holding its opponents to 25% EFG. Those numbers are 29% and 35% better than the best and worst rates in all of D1.

Balancing Offense and Defense

A key consideration when constructing starting lineups is the balance between offense and defense. A lineup that excels defensively may struggle to score points, while an offensively potent lineup may be vulnerable on the defensive end.

For instance, a starting lineup of Brown, Flagg, James, Kon, and Proctor may be stellar defensively but awful offensively. In such cases, coaches may need to experiment with different, more offensively-minded combinations to find the right balance.

It's also important to consider individual player strengths and weaknesses. Khaman's defensive numbers, for example, may be affected by the players he plays with. Similarly, while Flagg's individual efficiency numbers may be strong, he may be struggling on offense and need to be put in positions to get easy looks close to the basket.

The Role of Three-Point Shooting

In modern college basketball, three-point shooting is a crucial component of offensive success. Teams that can consistently knock down three-pointers are more likely to stretch the defense, create driving lanes, and score efficiently.

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If a team is not a good three-point shooting team, it may struggle to break down opposing defenses. In such cases, coaches may need to prioritize playing time for players who can consistently hit shots from beyond the arc. For example, coaches might want to give more minutes to players like Evans, Kon, Gillis, and Proctor, who are known for their three-point shooting ability.

The Impact of Player Roles

In addition to individual skills, it's important to consider the roles that each player fulfills within the team. Some players are primarily scorers, while others are defensive specialists, playmakers, or rebounders.

For example, Cooper and Maliq may be Duke's best defenders. Gillis, on the other hand, may be a good, experienced role player. Understanding these roles can help coaches create lineups that complement each other and maximize the team's overall effectiveness.

Some believe the best starting lineup is: Cooper, Kon, Tyrese, Sion and Man-Man/Maliq. It's worth considering whether Maliq is better as a starter or as a fantastic 6th man, as this may keep him out of foul trouble at the end of games when he's really needed.

The Importance of the Bench

While starting lineups are important, the players who come off the bench can also play a significant role in a team's success. A strong bench can provide a spark on offense, shore up the defense, or simply give starters a breather.

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The 2nd player off the bench is either Evans or Caleb. Neither of them is a point-guard so they need to be paired with one of Tyrese or Sion. Mason can be used when toughness and defense is needed, or to stop a team on a run.

Data-Centric Coaching

One of the hopes is that coaches would take a more data-centric approach. This involves using data and analytics to inform decisions about starting lineups, rotations, and game plans.

The emphasis on "lay-ups and 3s" of this year's team points pretty strongly to the idea that coaches are taking a data-driven approach, as that is essentially the current gospel from the analytics.

The Analogy to Card Counting in Blackjack

The analogy to card counting in Blackjack is useful here: yes, if you count cards appropriately, you can shift the odds to be in your favor. But you still need to be able to play long enough for those high-value periods to arise, which is why counting cards if you're just sitting alone playing $5 a hand isn't going to do you much good… instead, you need a huge bank-roll that allows you to play for hours and hours and hours until the odds shift in your direction. A single basketball game doesn't allow you to do that… all you can do is optimize your probabilities, but you're still vulnerable to a relatively small number of random events.

The Mid-Range Shot

There has already been a little movement in this direction in the pros. Several teams are now OK with the right players in the right situations just taking the open twos they are able to get. Yes, the rule of avoiding the mid-range altogether never really applied to the Kevin Durants of the world. Translated to Duke, this means Cooper (and maybe Tyrese) are the only ones who should even think about the mid-range, and only where other options have been excluded.

As a team, 9% of shots are mid-range 2s which means 91% are 3s, at the rim, or in the paint. This is a good shot mix. But 22% of Cooper's shots are mid-range 2s and he's only making 25% of them. These are hurting the eFG% as a team. There's room for improvement here reducing the number of these shots.

Examples of Starting Lineup Strategies

Several college basketball teams have adopted unique starting lineup strategies. For example, Michigan Wolverines claims the highest possession percentage in the country with their starting lineup of McDaniel, Burnett, Williams III, Nkamhoua, and Reed Jr. This unit has played 38.4% of Michigan’s 1203 possessions. Four of them have started every game they’ve played, while Reed Jr. has started all but one. Apart from him, the group averages at least 32.6 minutes per game. Despite their 7-10 record, this group has been impressive. They outscore opponents 35.4 to 31.6 points per game and shoot 49% from the field, including 43.1% from three. They also visit the free throw line more often, generating 26 more attempts (116 to 90) and converting at 73.3%. Their impressive 1.227 points per possession eclipse their opponents’ 1.095.

Fantasy College Basketball

There are some key differences you need to understand if you’re going to dive into the college game.

Familiarize Yourself with the Scoring System:

FanDuel scoring - Turnovers are negative- Blocks and Steals are 2 points
DraftKings scoring (updated for the new scoring changes) - Blocks and Steals are 2 points- Turnovers (-.5)- Three-point bonus (.5)- Double-double and Triple-double bonus

Value System: If you are chasing bigger GPPs, you can easily adjust your value number. In college, this is generally not true, as value holds constant throughout the entirety of your roster.

Information: College hoops is a niche sport, most likely the smallest in November. Information is scarce in college basketball, so the player who has the most information is generally going to perform better.

Tempo: Tempo is used a lot in the NBA, but it is even more prevalent in college. Pace matters greatly, as the differences between pace and defense are very defined in college.

Injuries: College hoops injuries are not as mainstream, and while the local beat writers will know the status of the players, almost every single questionable injury is a game-time call.

Foul Trouble: If a player picks up two fouls in the first half, even if they are not a foul-committing machine, the coach will sit them for an extended period of time in the first half, and if they pick up the third early in the second they will generally sit them a long period in the second. I doubt many NBA folks look at foul issues for players, but in college I constantly look at other teams’ foul drawing rates and certain players’ fouling rates relative to the positions they will be guarding.

Before-Tip Swap Madness: College basketball is light years safer than the NBA.

Be Patient: College basketball has a much higher variance than the NBA.

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