The Accelerating Trend of College Football Coach Firings

The world of college football is becoming increasingly volatile, with coaches facing the chopping block earlier and more frequently than ever before. What was once considered a long tenure can now be cut short in a matter of a few seasons, leaving programs scrambling to find replacements and fans reeling from the sudden changes.

A Week of Shocking Dismissals

Last Sunday served as a stark example of this trend. Penn State surprised many by firing James Franklin after a loss to Northwestern, a result that dropped the preseason No. 2 team to 3-3. Two hours before the Franklin news broke, Oregon State canned Trent Bray. Later that day, UAB ended its experiment with Trent Dilfer.

These three dismissals are part of an increasingly common trend. The trio of dismissals last weekend increased the number of fired coaches this season to seven, all of which occurred over a span of just 28 days. That's tied for the most coaches fired between the start of the season and the end of October in FBS history, with only the 2022 season matching it.

The Hot Seat Heats Up

Several other coaches find themselves on increasingly shaky ground. Florida's Billy Napier was dismissed as Florida head coach Sunday after a 22-23 record in 45 games with the Gators. After a hot start, Auburn lost three in a row, meaning Hugh Freeze’s days leading the Tigers could be numbered. Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin team, which is 2-4 and has scored a combined 34 points in its past four games, is hosting No. 1 Ohio State this weekend, which could be curtains for his once-promising tenure in Madison.

And that’s not even including potential changes at the Group of Five level over these next couple of weeks. By the time Halloween wraps up, there could be as many as a dozen FBS vacancies.

While Franklin was six games into his 12th season at Penn State, a few of the other unemployed coaches have gotten what would have been considered a quick hook not too long ago. Bray and DeShaun Foster were both fired in their second seasons at their schools. Dilfer, justified as his axing was, was just in his third season.

A Historical Perspective

It’s a sharp uptick from anything we’ve seen in the sport’s history. Even two years ago, there was only one pre-November firing - and that one was due to Mel Tucker’s reckless horniness, not on-field performance (though the aforementioned reckless horniness offered Michigan State a convenient out). In nine of 16 seasons since 2010, there have been no more than two in-season firings before November. Before this year, only twice had that number ever jumped above four during that stretch.

Still, the signs were there that we were accelerating to this point. This season marks the third time in the past five years that at least six coaches have been fired before November.

Factors Driving the Trend

Several factors contribute to this trend of early-season firings.

Unacceptable Situations

This season, several of the changes occurred as a way to escape what had become untenable situations.

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Franklin was getting booed for much of Penn State’s loss to Northwestern, even sending his wife and daughter to walk 50 or so feet in front of him in the Beaver Stadium tunnel after the game so they could be ahead of the chorus of verbal vitriol (or, god forbid, something worse). Given what UCLA’s managed to accomplish without him, Foster seemed uniquely incompetent. Based on some eye-opening comments from players after a 39-14 loss to Wake Forest last Saturday, Oregon State’s players were on the verge of quitting, if they weren’t already there.

The Early Signing Period and Transfer Portal

The early signing period in early December has effectively replaced the traditional February signing day, meaning the sooner a coach can get in, the sooner they can fortify recruiting. The advent of immediate eligibility for transfers adds a sense of urgency to getting a new coach signed on the dotted line. While players can’t officially enter the portal until it opens in January, they can announce their intent to transfer whenever, giving coaches and general managers the opportunity to put out feelers and start talking bags.

The Importance of a Head Start

Firing a coach earlier also gives an athletic director more time to evaluate their options, speak with candidates through backchannels and make sure that everybody - from university administration to boosters - is rowing in the same direction.

The Urban Meyer Example

There’s an apocryphal example that often gets discussed whenever the question of midseason firings arise.

In 2004, Florida and Notre Dame were struggling, as the two programs with national titles in the previous 20 years were a combined 13-11 that season. Both the Gators and Fighting Irish made coaching changes that year, but with a key difference - Florida fired Ron Zook in late October while Notre Dame waited until late November to do the same with Ty Willingham. You probably know how the rest of the story went. Both sides coveted then-Utah coach Urban Meyer, with the Gators ultimately winning his services. Meyer led Florida to two national championships over the next four years while the Irish settled for Charlie Weis, who the school fired five years later and had to pay a $19 million buyout (an unimaginable sum at the time).

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“The standards and expectations for Gators football are to win championships - not simply to compete,” Stricklin wrote in an official statement.

The Cost of Change

Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, and Kentucky are on the hook for contract buyouts totalling roughly $83 million for firing their respective coaches. Contract details for the new hires are expected to be made public later this week.

The most notable coach who went out with a win was former Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher, who was dismissed on Nov. 12, 2023. The Aggies defeated Mississippi State 51-10 on Nov. "After very careful analysis of all the components related to Texas A&M football, I recommended to President [Mark] Welsh and then Chancellor [John] Sharp that a change in the leadership of the program was necessary in order for Aggie football to reach our full potential and they accepted my decision," Texas A&M athletic director Ross Bjork said in a statement. On the same day, Nov. Avalos coached at his alma mater for three seasons, totaling a 22-14 record. At the time of his firing, Boise State was 5-5. "I am grateful for the passion, effort and dedication Andy has given to our community and his alma mater while serving as our head coach," athletic director Jeramiah Dickey said in a statement. Other than Napier, the most recent example occurred when Temple relieved then-head coach Stan Drayton on Nov.

Previously, former Miami head coach Larry Coker was fired after a 17-14 win over then-No. 18 Boston College on Nov. Coker, who had a 59-15 record during his tenure at Miami, led his Hurricanes to a 6-6 record in his final year as coach before he was bought out.

The Coaching Carousel: Lessons Learned

The 2025-26 carousel illustrated how the changing landscape of the sport changes what schools - and coaches - want.

There were 34 total changes, including firings by Kent State and Stanford before the season and Thomas Hammock’s late departure from Northern Illinois last week, with 17 coming at the Power 4 level. One year ago, there were just six Power 4 changes, when uncertainty around revenue sharing saw many schools hold off.

Here are 10 lessons learned from the 2025-26 carousel.

1. The "Indiana Effect"

Athletic directors making hires don’t want to say it too loudly. But they feel it.

“One word created this much churn: Indiana,” said one Power 4 athletic director. “If you’re established like Florida or LSU or even at places like Penn State or Arkansas, you’re asking, ‘If Indiana can do it, why the hell can’t my place do it?’”

ADs are hearing it from their constituents and donors. It adds pressure to get hires right, and Indiana making the impossible look easy has convinced people at campuses across America that the same thing is possible for them.

It has intensified the type of hope and belief that, in more cases than not, is probably unrealistic. And it’s hurried the clock on every coach taking over a new job, too.

“(Cignetti) is a unicorn. But because Indiana showed so much so fast, there’s a ton of hope and belief that, ‘Hey, if we just find the right guy we can turn it around like that,’” the athletic director said. “It’s like, ‘Why not us?’”

2. The Appeal of Sitting Head Coaches

The unlimited transfer portal has reshaped what is considered in making a hire, and it’s clearly made sitting head coaches more appealing than they used to be, especially from the Group of 6 level, after the market had moved toward Power 4 assistants with NIL experience. Virginia Tech also had 12 players follow James Franklin after he was fired by Penn State. This doesn’t even account for recruits who switch their commitment to follow the coach, and it comes on the heels of Cignetti taking many key JMU players with him to Indiana.

3. Redefining "Climbing" the Coaching Ladder

The story of this carousel wasn’t really who moved. It was who stayed. There weren’t any blue bloods trading coaches like in 2021 when Brian Kelly left Notre Dame for LSU and Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for USC. Lane Kiffin going to LSU, it turned out, was the outlier.

Indiana held onto its coach and is now paying Cignetti $13.2 million per year. Clark Lea signed an extension to stay at Vanderbilt after winning 10 games for the first time in school history. SMU fought off suitors to keep Rhett Lashlee. Nebraska kept Matt Rhule. Louisville didn’t let alum Jeff Brohm get away. Kenny Dillingham isn’t leaving Arizona State. Kalani Sitake passed on Penn State to stay at BYU.

History and tradition mean less in recruiting than ever. There’s mostly one question that matters to coaches: Do you have the money to pay for a big-time roster or not? If the answer is yes at places enjoying newfound success, like Texas Tech, SMU, Vanderbilt and Indiana, why does a coach need to leave? Ceilings are being redefined and schools can pay to keep their winner.

“You’d pay anything. You don’t want to go back. You can’t go back,” Chatlos said. “And if you’ve got a guy and you know the candidate pool is going to be thin and expensive, you pay. You just can’t let a guy leave. You don’t care. An eight-year deal and 80 percent guaranteed is better than the unknown. We know this guy can do it here.”

4. A Weak Coordinator Market

Of the 17 new Power 4 head coaches, only six were hired from coordinator jobs, and all six had previous ties to the school. Collin Klein (Kansas State), Tosh Lupoi (Cal) and Tavita Pritchard (Stanford) were former players and assistants at their schools, while Morgan Scalley (Utah) and Pete Golding (Ole Miss) were promoted from within. Will Stein is a Kentucky native and the son of a former UK player.

We did see some unconnected P4 coordinators land Group of 6 head jobs, like Brian Hartline (Ohio State OC to USF), Kirby Moore (Missouri OC to Washington State) and Casey Woods (SMU OC to Missouri State). But a weak market coupled with the ability to bring players through the portal made sitting head coaches more appealing candidates.

The G6 head coaching pool is going through a bit of a reset after this cycle, which could open up more coordinator opportunities next year. Perhaps hoping that trend shifts back, LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker opted to stay and work for Kiffin rather than take the Tulane head coaching job.

5. The Importance of Timing

Three weeks into the season, UCLA and Virginia Tech both fired their coaches. By Week 9, Penn State, Florida and LSU also had openings.

“The earlier you can make a change, the more thorough and comprehensive your search can run,” UCLA athletic director Martin Jarmond said. “You can get more input. You can study candidates much better.”

But that head start doesn’t always work. In Penn State’s case, it swung and missed early. It couldn’t lure Pennsylvania native Mike Elko from Texas A&M or Sitake from BYU, and coaches like Cignetti and Rhule received extensions amid Penn State speculation. It eventually came all the way back around on Campbell.

If the Nittany Lions had waited until later, would Rhule, a former Penn State linebacker, have received an extension at Nebraska? The Huskers started 5-1 but finished 7-6. Texas A&M started 11-0 but lost to rival Texas for a second consecutive season and lost a home Playoff game to Miami, ending on a two-game losing streak.

“If you’re trying to talk to coaches who are 6, 7, 8-0, it’s gonna be tough,” Chatlos said. “People are not willing to let them leave.”

James Franklin landed at Virginia Tech a month after Penn State fired him during the season.

6. Coaches Juggling Jobs

Kiffin’s public dispute over his desire to coach Ole Miss through the Playoff after taking the LSU job made all the headlines, but he wasn’t alone in that tension. Jon Sumrall coached Tulane in the Playoff after taking the Florida job and Chesney did the same at James Madison after moving on to UCLA.

“We respected Coach’s desire to coach his team,” Jarmond said. “We wanted him to. To me, if you have empathy, I wouldn’t want my coach to leave when I’m having a historic season. That loyalty and commitment was something we valued.”

But it also meant sorting through the logistics. Oregon coordinators Stein (Kentucky) and Lupoi (Cal) noted the sleep deprivation involved in coaching during the Playoff while trying to establish their own programs.

At UCLA, Chesney and the Bruins worked through a plan to allow him to coach his Dukes against Oregon while recruiting and working for UCLA.

“I said, ‘You gotta give me two or three people on your staff that can help us with logistics and personnel things we have to work through,’” Jarmond said. “We needed someone who could represent Coach Chesney and his desires.”

7. The Reality of Buyouts

Much was made of the large buyouts in this cycle of fired coaches, with Franklin’s nearly $49 million at Penn State and Kelly’s nearly $54 million at LSU. But they rarely end up at the top-line number because most include an offset from another job. Franklin instead settled for a $9 million buyout from Penn State because he’ll make head coach money at Virginia Tech.

Kentucky owed Mark Stoops almost $38 million within 60 days of firing him, without an offset, but the sides negotiated to pay that out annually into 2031, which helps the Wildcats’ budget.

And despite Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry railing against large buyouts, he had no problem with LSU delivering Kiffin a giant contract with no buyout offset. The buyout if Kiffin is fired without cause is 80 percent of the remaining annual salary, meaning it starts the 2026 season at $62.4 million.

“Marquee talent is still going to get what they want,” Chatlos said.

Multiple athletic directors pointed to Landry’s big talk at the start of the search as naiveté about the market and what securing a coveted coach requires.

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