Decoding NCAA Hockey Rankings: A Comprehensive Guide
NCAA hockey rankings play a crucial role in determining team selection and seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Understanding the metrics used can provide valuable insights into team performance and potential. This article delves into the intricacies of these rankings, explaining the key components and their impact.
Historical Context: The RPI
Historically, the RPI (Rating Percentage Index) served as a primary tool for evaluating NCAA hockey teams. The RPI was a way to take a team’s record into account, and the strength of schedule that team played as well. However, these were all determined by wins and losses, not by scoring margin or game control.
The NPI: A Modern Approach
The NPI (NCAA Performance Index) is now the official system for selecting and seeding teams for the NCAA Tournament. The Arcadia women check in at #8 in the inaugural NPI ratings.
*NPI has been adjusted because "bad wins" have been discarded. #NPI has been adjusted because "good losses" have been discarded. † QWB'Quality Win Bonus'. ‡ Wtd Win %'Weighted Won-Loss Pct.' is the team's winning percentage (including the OT effect) after adjusting for home/road effects. Note: This chart represents the system used by the NCAA to select and seed teams for the NCAA Tournament. A detailed explanation can be found in our Primer.
Accounting for Home Ice Advantage
Ice hockey has specific rules to better account for the sport’s quirks and features. The formula acknowledges that home ice plays a key role. Home wins are only worth a 90% weight when calculating that specific game score. Whereas an away win is worth 110% for a win. On the other hand, losing on the road, has 90% of that particular game score, and a home loss is more costly, at 110%. There are no weights applied to neutral-site games.
Read also: The Landscape of NCAA Hockey
Junior Hockey Landscape
In general terms, Junior Hockey provides high school graduates with another year or two of competitive hockey before going onto the next level and it can also serve as an alternative for prep, high school or midget hockey. Junior hockey has several different leagues and divisions similar to the college system.
Tiered System in the United States
The United States utilizes a tiered system for junior hockey leagues:
- Tier 1: The highest caliber of hockey in the United States, with the United States Hockey League (USHL) holding the sole Tier 1 status. To reach and obtain Tier 1 status the league must uniformly meet a set of criteria governed by USA Hockey. The league is free to play, the equipment is free, travel is free and the housing is provided for by the team (also free of charge). To play in the USHL a player must be drafted or signed by an organization. The USHL has two drafts. One is the Phase 1 where they select 16-year-old prospects throughout the world who are strong Tier 1 prospects with bright NCAA/CHL and some even NHL futures ahead of them. There is also a Phase II draft which is open to all players aged 16-20 who are not already protected by a USHL club.
- Tier 2: Features the North American Hockey League (NAHL). In Tier 2 the player is not charged a fee to play on the team, some of the equipment is provided for and travel is free. The only expense incurred by the player/parent is housing (referred to as billeting). While the NAHL has a draft system similar to the USHL, they acquire most of their prospects through free-agency recruiting similar to NCAA. They also host training camps and tryout camps for players who were not signed or went undrafted. These camps are largely considered “money makers” for the junior team to help off-set some of the costs associated with the team; however, there are players who get signed out of those camps. The NAHL also has a draft. The NAHL tends to be older than the USHL with more 20-year-old players and it is more geographically spread out.
- Tier 3: Referred to as “pay to play” hockey, making up over 80% of the registered junior teams in the US. Tier 3 junior hockey makes up over 80% of the registered junior teams in the US. These leagues are EHL, USPHL and NA3HL. The players/parents are charged a fee to play on the team (typically referred to as “tuition”) as well as paying for most of their equipment and housing. These leagues are comprised primarily of NCAA D3 and AHCA club hockey prospects. The NA3HL also has a draft; the CCHL and NCDC have Bantam drafts and then regular drafts open to players of all ages.
- Un-sanctioned Leagues: Two leagues in the US who do not fall into a Tier category as they are un-sanctioned leagues by USA Hockey and that is WSHL and the NCDC. These two leagues are similar to Tier 2 where the players do not pay to play on the team but are responsible for their own housing arrangements, most of their equipment and other fees. NOTE: The NPI, represented here, is the official system for selecting and seeding teams for the NCAA Tournament. The WSHL has a lot of European prospects and some go on to play in other junior leagues and NCAA D3. The NCDC also has a draft.
Canadian Junior Hockey
The Canadian junior leagues are not broken down into Tier systems like the US model; they instead work under the Junior A and Junior B model. Junior A hockey is governed by the Canadian Junior Hockey League (CJHL). Junior A does not have the same uniform rules the way Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 have in USA Hockey. There are some Junior A leagues like the BCHL that pay no tuition fees and then there are other leagues such as the CCHL and OJHL that do charge players to play. Below Junior A system is Junior B with leagues such as GOJHL, KIJHL, NWJHL, etc. The Junior B model varies in ability but most of these prospects are either young CHL prospects who are not good enough to play Junior A (primarily in GOJHL) or they are older prospects who are not NCAA or CHL prospects.
USHL: The Gold Standard
The USHL is the standard in which all other junior leagues (non-CHL) can be judged. They have the highest number of NHL draft picks, they have the best NCAA placement and success rates, the largest attendance numbers and its free for players. The development, coaching, resources, competition and exposure are the best in all of North America. With that being said it would be unfair to say US junior hockey as a whole is better than Canadian junior hockey as a whole.
Navigating Junior Hockey: Advice for Players and Parents
- Placement Matters: Are the players on the previous years team going NCAA, are they going CHL, are they going to club hockey, etc. Are the previous years graduates going to the same places you want to go? Don’t fall into the trap of looking at players from 5, 10, 15 years ago and where they went.
- Team Habits: Research the teams trade habits; is this a team who is patient developing their players or are they trading off players when they don’t produce?
- Contracts: Be careful before signing a contract with a junior team. How are the previous years graduates doing at the next level?
- NCAA Compliance: Make sure to comply with NCAA programs educational requirements and make sure the player is in line with the NCAA Clearinghouse. Some players enter junior hockey before they graduate from high school and those players need to make sure they are taken the proper courses to graduate and be compliant with the NCAA.
- Training Camps: Be careful with training/try-out camps.
Read also: Anthony Robles: Overcoming Obstacles
Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile
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