Big 12 Teams Eyeing NCAA Tournament Bids

The anticipation surrounding the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is building, and projections for the Big 12 Conference are generating considerable excitement. Several Big 12 teams are vying for a coveted spot in March Madness. Updated projections offer potential hope for the Big 12, with a significant number of teams projected to make the tournament.

Projecting the Big 12's NCAA Tournament Presence

In 2025, seven teams from the Big 12 Conference secured berths in the NCAA Tournament. As March approaches, bracketology experts are offering their insights into which Big 12 teams are in a strong position to make the NCAA Tournament and where they might be seeded.

Three major sports outlets-ESPN, USA TODAY Sports, and CBS Sports-have released their NCAA Tournament bracketology predictions, offering a glimpse into the potential representation of the Big 12 in the tournament.

Expert Projections for the Big 12

These projections suggest that the Big 12 could potentially send eight teams to the NCAA Tournament. All three sources agree on the top contenders within the conference.

ESPN

ESPN lists Arizona as a No. 1 seed. Iowa State and Houston are slotted as No. 2 seeds. Kansas is seen as a No. 3 seed, as is Texas Tech. BYU is a No. 6 seed. UCF is a No. 10 seed, one of the last teams to avoid the First Four. TCU is a No. 11 seed, currently one of the final four teams to get in the tournament.

Read also: Enrollment at Notre Dame

USA TODAY Sports

USA TODAY Sports also projects Arizona to lead the conference as a No. 1 seed. Houston follows as a No. 2 seed, with Iowa State also slotted as a No. 2 seed. Texas Tech is projected as a No. 3 seed, as is Kansas. BYU is a No. 6 seed, while UCF is a No. 9 seed. TCU is the final Big 12 team to get in the field, listed as a No. 11 seed having to play in the First Four.

CBS Sports

CBS Sports' bracketology echoes the other projections, placing Arizona as a No. 1 seed, with Iowa State and Houston as No. 2 seeds. Kansas is also a No. 3 seed here, but Texas Tech comes in as a No. 4 seed. BYU is also a No. 6 seed, according to this site. As for UCF, it is listed as a No. 10 seed. TCU is also pegged as a First Four team in this prediction, with the Horned Frogs a No. 11 seed.

Teams on the Bubble

While the projections highlight the teams currently expected to make the tournament, the question remains: Could any other Big 12 basketball teams make the NCAA Tournament?

West Virginia is currently the Big 12's best chance to get another team in the field. ESPN listed the Mountaineers, who are 16-10 overall and 7-6 in the Big 12, in the "Next Four Out" category for missing the tournament. It's likely to take a really impressive end of the regular season and a potential long NCAA Tournament run for another team to warrant consideration. Cincinnati is 14-12 overall and 67- in the Big 12, while Arizona State is 14-12 and 5-8.

Several teams outside the Big 12 are also working to solidify their tournament chances.

Miami (Ohio)

It’s hard to comprehend how the only undefeated team in college basketball could be on the bubble, but we’re not willing to put anything past the committee if the RedHawks lose one or more of their final three regular-season games and don’t win the MAC tournament. Yes, Miami didn’t play a strong non-conference schedule. Yes, the MAC is not one of the best conferences in the country. But going 28-0 and being the last undefeated team in the country by a long shot should mean something. And If the RedHawks end up as a double-digit seed, there are going to be a lot of power-conference teams in the Nos. 6-to-7 seeds hoping to avoid them on Selection Sunday.

Remaining games:Feb. 27: at Western Michigan (10-18)March 3: vs. Toledo (15-13)March 6: at Ohio (15-13)

Missouri

The Tigers are on the bubble thanks to a porous non-conference schedule. Mizzou’s best non-conference win is over Minnesota and the Tigers lost to Notre Dame and got blown out by Kansas and Illinois. But Mizzou got healthy before its SEC slate began and is on track to get a bye in the conference tournament. The Tigers have wins over Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee as they now sit 9-6 in conference play with games against Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Arkansas remaining. A 2-1 finish should guarantee that Mizzou isn’t playing in a First Four game in Dayton.

Remaining games:Feb. 28: at Mississippi State (13-15)March 3: at Oklahoma (14-14)March 7: vs. No. 20 Arkansas (21-7)

Auburn

Don’t be so sure about the Tigers’ NCAA tournament chances. Yes, Auburn has a one-point loss to Houston and a win over St. John’s in non-conference play, but it's now 6-9 in the SEC after a 91-79 loss at Oklahoma on Tuesday. Auburn has lost six of its past seven games - the only win came at Kentucky in a game where Mark Pope said he felt his team was cheated by the officiating. The bright spot for Auburn is that it has games against Ole Miss and LSU remaining before finishing the regular season at Alabama. The Rebels and Tigers from Baton Rouge have a combined conference record of 5-23. But given the way the Auburn Tigers are playing right now, is either game a gimme?

Remaining games:Feb. 28: vs. Ole Miss (11-17)March 3: vs. LSU (15-13)March 7: at No. 17 Alabama (21-7)

Texas

The Longhorns lost 84-71 at home to No. 7 Florida on Wednesday night; an upset win would have been a massive boon for their tournament hopes. Instead, Texas is now 8-7 in the SEC and needs to get one win over its next three games to guarantee a .500 finish in league play. The loss to Florida came after a loss to Georgia; before that, Texas had reeled off a five-game win streak. However, four of those wins came against the four teams at the bottom of the SEC standings. The other victory? A road win at Missouri. Given the way the Tigers are playing, that could be the win that gets Texas in the tournament.

Remaining games:Feb. 28: at Texas A&M (19-9)March 4: at No. 20 Arkansas (21-7)March 7: vs. Oklahoma (14-14)

TCU

The Horned Frogs are above .500 in Big 12 play after a 90-78 home win over Arizona State on Tuesday. It was TCU’s fifth win in its past six games as the Frogs have surged into the NCAA tournament picture after a four-game losing streak at the start of conference play. Granted, three of those losses came to Kansas, Arizona and BYU with a healthy Richie Saunders. Now TCU has a real chance to get to 10-8 in Big 12 play and have a bye in the Big 12 tournament. That conference record coupled with a Big 12 tourney win should be enough to make the field.

Remaining games:Feb. 28: at Kansas State (11-17)March 3: at No. 16 Texas Tech (21-7)March 7: vs. Cincinnati (15-13)

Ohio State

Are the Buckeyes’ tournament hopes fading fast? Ohio State lost 74-57 to Iowa on Wednesday night to fall to 9-8 in the Big Ten. It’s Ohio State’s third loss in the past four games and the Buckeyes have not won more than two consecutive games since starting the season 6-0. Ohio State does have the benefit of being in the top 40 in KenPom’s rankings at No. 39. That’s eight spots behind Texas and two behind Auburn. Plus it’s 12 spots ahead of Missouri. But the Buckeyes may need a couple of wins in the Big Ten tournament to really feel good about their chances of making the big dance.

Remaining games:March 1: vs. No. 8 Purdue (22-5)March 4: at Penn State (11-17)March 7: vs. Indiana (17-11)

USC

The Trojans are really scuffling as they fade away from the NCAA tournament picture. USC lost its fourth straight game on Tuesday night in an 81-62 blowout loss at UCLA. That streak has included a loss to fellow bubble team Ohio State, a 36-point home defeat to Illinois and a home loss to an Oregon team that’s one of the worst in the Big Ten. A win over No. 12 Nebraska on Saturday may be imperative to keep the Trojans’ hopes alive barring a big run in the Big Ten tournament.

Remaining games:Feb. 28: vs. No. 12 Nebraska (24-4)March 4: at Washington (14-14)March 7: vs. UCLA (19-9)

Santa Clara

The Broncos’ chances of getting the No. 2 seed in the West Coast Conference tournament disappeared on Wednesday night with an 86-67 loss at Saint Mary’s. Santa Clara is now a game back of Saint Mary’s and two games back of Gonzaga with one game to play. Santa Clara has perhaps the easiest path to an automatic bid via a conference tournament win of any team in this group. But (likely) beating both Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga to win the WCC title after going 1-3 against them in the regular season is a big ask. A win over the Gaels in the WCC semifinals, however, may be a must to guarantee a spot in the tournament.

Remaining game:Feb. 28: vs. No. No. No. No. No. No.

The Road to the Tournament: The Big 12 Tournament

The 2026 Big 12 men's basketball tournament is a postseason men's basketball tournament for the Big 12 Conference. It will be played from March 10-14, 2026, in Kansas City, Missouri at the T-Mobile Center. The winning team will receive the conference's automatic bid to the 2026 NCAA Tournament. All sixteen teams will participate in the tournament. Teams will be seeded by record within the conference. Ties will be broken by head-to-head results, then results vs.

Tournament Structure

The tournament bracket will be structured as follows:

First Round:
- No. 16 TBD vs No. 9 TBD
- No. 12 TBD vs No. 13 TBD
- No. 10 TBD vs No. 15 TBD
- No. 11 TBD vs No. 14 TBD

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