High School Graduation Statistics: Projecting Future Trends

Estimating the future number of high school graduates is an important exercise, aiding policymakers and college leaders in resource management. While projections become less certain further into the future, they offer valuable insights for planning and adaptation.

National Overview: A Peak and Subsequent Decline

WICHE (Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education) released its latest edition of “Knocking at the College Door” in December. The report anticipates that this year will represent a peak in high school graduates. However, the number of high school graduates is forecast to be 3.1% lower in 2030 than in 2023. Despite this overall decrease, the number of high school graduates is projected to be 2 percent higher in 2030-31 than in 2012-13.

Factors Influencing Projections

These projections are based largely on birth rates and demographic changes. State-level migration also plays a role. It's important to note that the projections do not assume changes or attitudes that may affect the high school graduate levels.

Regional Variations: The South as an Outlier

Among regions, the only increase in high school graduate populations is expected in the South, already home to the largest number of high school graduates. These projections for the South are slightly higher than WICHE estimated in 2020, potentially due to population migration to Southern states. Patrick Lane, WICHE’s vice president of policy analysis and research, noted the importance of regionally focused policy responses and institutional adaptation.

In contrast, the picture is much starker in the country’s other three major regions. States themselves contain cities, suburbs, towns, and rural areas, each experiencing different trends.

Read also: Enrollment at Notre Dame

Shifting Demographics Within States

Suburbs are currently home to the largest share of 12th-grade students, and that isn’t expected to change anytime soon. In the 2022-23 academic year, 43% of 12th-grade enrollment came from suburbs. Meanwhile, rural areas will slightly increase their share of 12th graders, from 15% to 16%, while cities’ share will drop from 31% to 29%, per WICHE’s projections.

The Role of College-Going Rates

Demographics and graduate numbers don't tell the whole story. The college-going rate plays a major role. The college-going rate has declined significantly over the past decade. The health of the economy plays a strong role in that rate - with college attendance rising in downturns. Or, as Michelau put it in the report’s introduction: “Demography need not be destiny."

Texas and the National "Birth Dearth"

The United States experienced a 17% decrease in the number of births from 4.32 million in 2007 to 3.6 million in 2023. This national ‘birth dearth’ has not been experienced to the same extent in Texas, as the number of births in Texas fell 4.3% from 407,625 in 2007 to 387,945 in 2023. Colleges and universities nationally are bracing for the projected enrollment decline that coincides with the decrease in babies born in the late 2000s, as they will be turning 18 within the next few years.

Texas Trends in Detail

The most recent single year of age estimates from the US Census Bureau show 4.36 million 18-year-olds in the nation in 2023. While this number represented an increase of 3.6% from the 2015 estimate of 4.21 million, the 2023 total number of 18-year-olds in America is a 5.3% decrease from the peak of 2007.

Looking at the “Projections” side of the chart shows not one, but two demographic ‘cliffs’ for 18-year-old residents in the 2023 Projections from the Census Bureau. The first drop of approximately 7.4% is projected to occur between 2026 and 2030 (4.47M in 2026 to 4.14M in 2030), while the second drop from 2033 to 2039 of almost 9% (4.2M in 2033 to 3.8M in 2039) has caused increased alarm about the potential effects on higher education enrollment in the next 15 years in America. An additional concern on the “Projections” side can be seen when comparing the two sets of projections. The 2017 vintage projected a steady increase from 2034 through 2060, while the 2023 projections show a relatively flat trend from 2040-2055 before a drop off in 2060.

Texas will likely not be immune to decreasing population of 18-year-old residents in the next decade or so, due to the decline in births discussed above. If we focus on the window from 2000 to 2033, the estimated number for 18-year-old Texans will have increased by 35% from 332K in 2000 to 447K in 2033. The Texas downward trend for 18-year-olds is projected to occur in a timeframe similar to the second drop in the national projections from the Census Bureau’s 2023 estimates. The chart below shows the projected decline to start in 2034, as the Texas Demographic Center (TDC) estimates Texas will have more than 447,000 18-year-old residents in both 2033 and 2034.

Texas Set to Overtake California

Data from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)’s “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates (11th Edition)” has long been considered the primary source for estimates about the future of high school graduates nationally and within each state. Except for slight bumps in 2034 and 2039, the number of high school graduates in America is projected to fall to 3.4 million in 2041, an overall 13% decrease from the peak of 2025 to the end of the projection window in 2041.

The last visualization above shows that Texas is predicted to overtake California as the highest producer of high school graduates in 2033, with the gap between Texas and California widening to more than 75,000 graduates by 2041. In terms of numerical growth, Florida leads Texas in the increase of high school graduates from 2023 to 2041, as Florida is projected to add almost 26,000 high school graduates by 2041 (221,601 in 2023 to 247,409 in 2041), while Texas is projected to grow by 21,000 from 393,596 in 2023 to 414,861 in 2041.

States with Significant Growth and Decline

When calculating percentage change, five states are predicted to experience double-digit growth in high school graduates from 2023 to 2041: Tennessee (15.1%), South Carolina (14.4%), Idaho (13.5%), North Dakota (12.8%), and Florida (11.6%). Texas ranks 10th in terms of percentage growth with a 5.4% increase from 2023 to 2041.

At the bottom of the distribution with more than 25% decreases are West Virginia (-25.6%), New York (-26.6%), California (-29%), Illinois (-31.9%), and Hawaii (-32.9%).

Out-of-State Migration from Texas

The most recent data from fall 2022 showed that higher education institutions in five states enrolled at least 1,300 Texans who were direct enrollees after graduating from high school in Texas: Oklahoma (3,732), Arkansas (3,579), Louisiana (1,777), New York (1,337), and Colorado (1,300).

Implications of Migration Trends

If we contextualize these five states in terms of WICHE’s projections, only one (Oklahoma) of the five states is projected to see any growth in high school graduates from 2023 to 2041, and Oklahoma’s increase is statistically imperceptible at 0.08%. These current top-5 states for out-migration of Texas high school graduates are projected to decrease by almost 17% collectively from 398K in 2023 to 333K in 2041 in the number of high school graduates they are producing within their own states.

Given that 80% of all states are projected to have decreases in high school graduates within their borders from 2023 to 2041, the external pressure from out-of-state colleges and universities to entice Texas high school graduates to leave the state will only amplify in the years ahead. With Texas projected to be the highest-producing state in terms of high school graduates within the next decade, coupled with the fact that 80% of all states are projected to have decreases in high school graduates within their borders from 2023 to 2041, the external pressure from out-of-state colleges and universities to entice Texas high school graduates to leave the state will only amplify in the years ahead.

Historical Trends in Graduation Rates

The number of public high school graduates is projected to be higher in 2030-31 than in 2012-13. Between 2005-06 and 2012-13, the number of public high school graduates increased 13 percent (2.8 million vs. 3.2 million). During the same period, the number of private high school graduates was 1 percent higher in 2012-13 than in 2005-06 (309,000 vs. 305,000).

Changes in Graduation by Race/Ethnicity

Significant shifts are also projected in the racial and ethnic makeup of high school graduates:

American Indian/Alaska Native: decrease 26 percent between 2012-13 and 2030-31 (31,000 vs. 23,000).
Asian/Pacific Islander: increase 29 percent between 2012-13 and 2030-31 (179,000 vs. 231,000).
Black: decrease 12 percent between 2012-13 and 2030-31 (462,000 vs. 405,000).
Hispanic: increase 51 percent between 2012-13 and 2030-31 (640,000 vs. 967,000).
White: decrease 22 percent between 2012-13 and 2030-31 (1,791,000 vs. 1,393,000).
Two or more races: increase 208 percent between 2012-13 and 2030-31 (66,000 vs. 203,000).

Accuracy of Projections

It’s important to consider the accuracy of these projections. An analysis of past projection errors reveals the following:

1 year out, expect the projection to be within 1.0 percent of the actual value, on average.
10 years out, expect the projection to be within 3.0 percent, respectively.

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