Upset on the Mat: Examining the Lowest Seeds to Win NCAA Wrestling Championships
The NCAA Wrestling Tournament is a stage where dreams are chased, and upsets become legends. While top seeds often dominate the narrative, history reveals remarkable instances of lower-seeded wrestlers defying expectations and claiming the ultimate prize and it may be time to throw the names in a hat and pick a predicted champ from there.
The Tournament Landscape
Just eight days stand between the 330 qualified NCAA wrestlers and the opportunity to chase their dream. This year's tournament promises parity and potential for unexpected victories, particularly in weight classes like 125 pounds, where the field seems wide open.
Parity at 125 Pounds
The 125-pound weight class exemplifies this year's unpredictability. Then-No. 1 Matt Ramos of Purdue fell in the second round of the Big Ten tournament to Dean Peterson and then took another loss to Iowa's Drake Ayala in the consolation finals. Lehigh's Luke Stanich, who has two collegiate losses on the year to Richard Figueroa and Troy Spratley, won the EIWA tournament and earned the No. 2 seed while Big Ten bronze medalist Ayala slots in at the No. 3, despite losses earlier this year to Ramos, Michigan's now-seeded No. 18 Michael DeAugustino and Oregon State's Brandon Kaylor, a 2022 All-American who comes in at the No. Tristan Lujan at the No. 33 can't be dismissed - that's just how unpredictable 125 pounds is this year. The last time Lujan wrestled No. 1 seed and 2024 Big Ten champion Braeden Davis, he lost 4-2. That's a one takedown difference between the lowest seed and the highest seed.
Key Contenders and Potential Upsets Across Weight Classes
- 133 Pounds: Lehigh's Ryan Crookham, the No. 2 seed, is a significant story after defeating reigning NCAA champion Vito Arujau. Fix does have No. 8 Evan Frost of Iowa State on his side of the bracket, and if both of these athletes advance to the quarterfinals, pay special attention to this match. Arujau comes in at the No. 6 seed, meaning he'll have Lock Haven's Gable Strickland first. A win there, if seeds hold, could put him up against Cal Poly's Zeth Romney in the second round and potentially N.C. State All-American Kai Orine in the quarterfinals. If the bracket goes chalk though, Orine will have to navigate past a tough Jacob Van Dee of Nebraska in the second round. Van Dee, much like Ohio State's Nic Bouzakis at the No.
- 141 Pounds: Ohio State's Jesse Mendez, after his Big Ten tournament performance, has emerged as a title contender. Bartlett will come in as the No. 2 seed while Woods sits at the No. 3 spot, setting up first round match for Woods against All-American Clay Carlson of South Dakota State. The path isn't much easier for Bartlett though. His first round match will be against Kai Owen of Columbia who has a win this season over No. 7 Cael Happel of Northern Iowa, and the winner of that match gets the winner over No. 15 Mitch Moore vs. No. 18 Cole Matthews. Pittsburgh's Matthews is an All-American with a win earlier this season against No. 1 Jesse Mendez.
- 149 Pounds: Dynamic wrestling defines this weight class, with Ridge Lovett as the No. 1 seed. If the brackets go chalk, he could see No. 8 Casey Swiderski of Iowa State in the quarterfinals and All-American No. 3 Caleb Henson in the semifinals. Gomez sits at the No. 6, setting up a first round match between Gomez and No. On the bottom side of the bracket, Arizona State's Kyle Parco earned the No. 2 seed by way of his Pac-12 title and earlier season win over Lovett. ACC champion Jackson Arrington comes in seeded at No. Two former All-Americans are seeded outside the top ten including No. 26 Jaden Abas and No. 14 Dylan D'Emilio, and both are excellent sleeper picks, but Abas is particularly interesting because this will be his first NCAA tournament wrestling for new Stanford head coach Chris Ayres. Watch out for the Cardinal.
- 157 Pounds: Penn State's Levi Haines, the No. 1 seed, is the wrestler to watch. If Haines wins his first round match though, he'll face either All-American Brock Mauller of Missouri or Oklahoma State star Teague Travis in the second round, and neither of those matchups would be easy. Also on Haines' side of the bracket is 2023 Cliff Keen Invitational champion Peyton Robb who sits at the No. 8 after a series of regular season losses - Robb is always a tricky matchup. Haines is 3-0 against Robb, but all of those matches have been decision wins with one of them coming in overtime. Michigan All-American Lewan is also a bad draw for wrestlers in this top side of the bracket at the No. Arizona State's Jacori Temmer is potentially the biggest threat to Haines at the No. 2 seed, and he'll have Matt Bianchi of Little Rock first. The winner of that match faces the winner of Vinny Zerban vs. Cael Swensen, and Zerban was the No. 2-ranked wrestler at 157 pounds for a good part of the season. Meyer Shapiro, Cornell's standout freshman, sits at the No. 3 while N.C. State All-American Ed Scott holds down the No. 4 spot. Freshman Cody Chittum at the No. 14 seed is the sleeper All-American at this weight because of his gritty style.
- 165 Pounds: Missouri's Keegan O'Toole, with a perfect record, is the frontrunner. O'Toole will have a solid path to the semifinals, where, if the brackets go chalk, he'll meet the winner of No. 4 David Carr vs. No. 5 Dean Hamiti. Carr won NCAAs in 2021 while Hamiti won Big Tens in 2023. At the No. 2 seed, Big Ten champion Mitchell Mesenbrink has Northwestern's Maxx Mayfield first, and he could also potentially see All-Americans Izzak Olejnik or Cameron Amine in the quarterfinals, depending on who makes it out of the second round. In the semifinals, if the brackets go chalk, Mesenbrink could meet No. 3 Julian Ramirez of Cornell, the only wrestler beyond O'Toole in the field with a win over Carr. There's so much talent in this weight that it's easy to focus on the stars and ignore the sleepers, but Caleb Fish at the No. 26 is interesting.
- 174 Pounds: Injuries to key wrestlers like Carter Starocci and Shane Griffith have shaken up this weight class. This shakeup pushes Virginia Tech's Mekhi Lewis, another former champion, into the No. 1 seed spot and gives him a potential quarterfinal match against Starocci, depending on how the early rounds shake out. Griffith at the No. South Dakota State's Cade Devos benefited from Griffith and Starocci's medical forfeits at Big Tens. He'll take the No. 2 seed, and the only returning All-American he has on his side of the bracket is No. 22 Peyton Mocco of Missouri. Mocco will have to make it past his first round match against Austin Murphy of Campbell and then beat the winner of Danny Wask of Navy vs.
- 184 Pounds: Parker Keckeisen dominates this weight class with a stellar record and high bonus rate. Down at the No. 2 spot is Isaiah Salazar who has had a sneaky good year and boasts a 21-1 record. His first opponent, Tony Negron of Arizona State is scrappy and got into the tournament on an at-large bid. If Salazar makes it past Negron, he'll get the winner of Reece Heller and Ryder Rogotzke, both dangerous wrestlers.
- 197 Pounds: The anticipated match is No. 1 Aaron Brooks vs. No. 2 Trent Hidlay. For this to happen, both athletes would either have to make the finals or meet somewhere along the way in the consolation bracket, with the former scenario much more likely to happen than the latter. Hidlay and Brooks both come into the national tournament with undefeated records and bonus rates of at least 83%. These athletes have met three times before, with Brooks claiming victory all three times by a margin of two points or less. Last year's NCAA finalist Tanner Sloan sits at the No. 3 spot following his Big 12 title last weekend, and he'll have Sam Mitchell of Buffalo first round. One sleeper to watch is North Carolina's Max Shaw at the No. 15. Shaw's 19-5 on the year and will open his tournament up against No.
- Heavyweight: Greg Kerkvliet has been the top seed all year, but Yonger Bastida and Wyatt Hendrickson are also in contention. Lucas Davison of Michigan is a bad draw for anyone on the bottom half of the bracket, including Bastida (though Bastida does have a hard-fought win against the Wolverine). On the top half though, perhaps the most interesting match is between No. 21 Dayton Pitzer from Pittsburgh who earned an at-large bid and No. 12 Konner Doucet of Oklahoma State.
Defining an Upset: What Seed Numbers Have Achieved the Improbable?
While the term "upset" is subjective, examining the lowest seeds to reach the NCAA finals, and particularly those who have won, provides a historical benchmark.
Basketball's Lessons: Seeds and Success in March Madness
The NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament offers a parallel for understanding the potential for lower-seeded teams to make deep runs. Only seven teams with double-digit seeds have made the March Madness Final Four since the men's tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, including the 2023-24 season when No. Along with those six No. 11 seeds to make the Final Four, Syracuse in 2016 reached the Final Four as a No. The highest seed to ever make the championship is a No. 8, which has happened four times. The first came in the first NCAA tournament under the modern format, when No. 8 Villanova beat powerhouse No. 1 Georgetown for the 1985 championship. It also happened in 2011 (Butler), 2014 (Kentucky) and 2022 (North Carolina). That 2014 final also gave us the highest total seed value for a championship game as No. 7 UConn took down No.
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Notable Low-Seeded Wrestling Champions
- Mark Branch (1994, Oklahoma State): As an unseeded wrestler at 167 pounds, Branch's championship run was a remarkable achievement.
- Cody Brewer (2015, Oklahoma): Brewer, the No. 13 seed at 133 pounds, defied the odds to win a national title.
- Myles Martin (2016, Ohio State): Martin, seeded 11th at 174 pounds, defeated top-seeded Bo Nickal of Penn State to claim the championship.
- Richard Figueroa (2024): No. 8 seed Richard Figueroa upset No. 3 seed Drake Ayala to win the 125-pound NCAA Wrestling Championship
- Vito Arujua (2024): Defending champion at 133-pound, but the No. 6 seed, Vito Arujua, won the championship as well.
- Carter Starocci (2024): Starocci became only the sixth wrestler to win four straight national championships, and his teammate Aaron Brooks became the seventh on the same night. But Starocci did it as the No. 9 seed in his bracket. An injury forced Starocci to take losses at the Big Ten Championships earlier in March and led to his lower seed.
Historical Data: Lowest-Seeded Finalists (2000-Present)
The following table highlights the lowest-seeded wrestlers to reach the NCAA finals in recent history:
| YEAR | WRESTLER | TEAM | WEIGHT | SEED | FINISH | BRACKET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kizhan Clarke | North Carolina | 141 | 15 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2022 | Ridge Lovett | Nebraska | 149 | 10 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2021 | Shane Griffith | Stanford | 165 | 8 | 1st | Top |
| 2019 | Mekhi Lewis | Virginia Tech | 165 | 8 | 1st | Top |
| 2018 | Ronnie Perry | Lock Haven | 149 | 15 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2017 | Ethan Lizak | Minnesota | 125 | 6 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2017 | George DiCamillo | Virginia | 141 | 6 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2016 | Bryce Meredith | Wyoming | 141 | 14 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2016 | Myles Martin | Ohio State | 174 | 11 | 1st | Bottom |
| 2015 | Zeke Moisey | West Virginia | 125 | US | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2015 | Cody Brewer | Oklahoma | 133 | 13 | 1st | Top |
| 2014 | Joshua Kindig | Oklahoma State | 149 | 11 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2013 | Michael McMullen | Northwestern | 285 | 5 | 2nd | Top |
| 2012 | Nico Megaludis | Penn State | 125 | 10 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2012 | Brandon Hatchett | Lehigh | 165 | 11 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2011 | Quentin Wright | Penn State | 184 | 9 | 1st | Top |
| 2010 | Chase Pami | Cal Poly | 157 | 7 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2009 | Jarrod King | Edinboro | 165 | 12 | 1st | Top |
| 2008 | Jordan Leen | Cornell | 157 | 8 | 1st | Top |
| 2007 | Kurt Backes | Iowa State | 197 | 9 | 2nd | Top |
| 2006 | Brian Stith | Arizona State | 157 | 10 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2005 | Joe Johnston | Iowa | 157 | 8 | 2nd | Top |
| 2004 | Ryan Fulsaas | Iowa | 197 | 10 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2003 | Carl Fronhofer | Pitt | 174 | US | 2nd | Top |
| 2002 | Rob Rohn | Lehigh | 184 | 8 | 1st | Top |
| 2001 | Pat Quirk | Illinois | 197 | 7 | 2nd | Bottom |
| 2000 | Carl Perry | Illinois | 141 | 8 | 1st | Top |
| 2000 | Steve Garland | Virginia | 125 | 8 | 2nd | Top |
| 1999 | Tony Davis | Northern Iowa | 149 | 6 | 2nd | Bottom |
Seed Statistics: Finals Appearances and Win Rates
While double-digit seeds went 0-2 in the finals last year, they have a surprising win rate of 31% if they make it to the finals.
Seed Number and Finals Appearances:
| SEED | # OF FINALS |
|---|---|
| 8th | 7 |
| 7th | 2 |
| 10th | 4 |
| 6th | 3 |
| 11th | 3 |
| US | 2 |
| 9th | 2 |
| 15th | 2 |
| 5th | 1 |
| 14th | 1 |
| 13th | 1 |
| 12th | 1 |
Weight Class and Finals Appearances:
| WEIGHT | # OF FINALS |
|---|---|
| 165 | 4 |
| 157 | 4 |
| 149 | 4 |
| 141 | 4 |
| 125 | 4 |
| 197 | 3 |
| 184 | 2 |
| 174 | 2 |
| 285 | 1 |
| 133 | 1 |
Paths to the Finals: Examining Bracket Placement
Analyzing the bracket placement of these lowest-seeded finalists reveals potential advantages or disadvantages based on their side of the bracket (top or bottom).
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