The NCAA 16-Team Playoff Proposal: A Deep Dive into College Football's Future

The College Football Playoff (CFP) has been a topic of constant discussion and evolution since its inception in 2014. As the sport continues to grow and adapt, so too does the debate surrounding the optimal format for determining a national champion. With the current 12-team playoff format set to debut in 2025, college football leaders are already engaged in discussions about further expansion, specifically considering a move to 16 teams. However, disagreement over the number of at-large teams vs. automatic qualifiers has stalled progress.

The Current State of the CFP

The College Football Playoff era began with the 2014 season. For the first decade, four teams were selected to the Playoff field, with two semifinal games and a national championship game. The quarterfinals and semifinals rotate among six bowls: Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach, Rose and Sugar. Both semifinals will be played around the New Year's holiday with the national title game on a Monday night at least a week later.

The current format involves a selection committee of 13 members, comprised of individuals with experience as coaches, players, college administrators, athletic directors, and journalists. This committee meets weekly to produce rankings, which are announced on ESPN. Teams listed by three or more members remain under consideration.

The Push for Expansion: 16 Teams and Beyond

The drive to expand the College Football Playoff stems from a desire to enhance fan engagement, increase revenue, and provide more opportunities for teams to compete for a national championship. A larger playoff field would keep more teams in contention later in the season, generating excitement and interest among fans and players alike.

The 5+11 Model

One of the leading proposals for a 16-team playoff is the "5+11" model, championed by the Big 12. This format would grant automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions and allocate the remaining 11 spots to at-large teams. The SEC and ACC have expressed support for this model, particularly after agreeing to move to nine-game conference schedules, matching the Big Ten and Big 12.

The Big Ten's Stance

The Big Ten, however, has been less enthusiastic about the 5+11 model, with commissioner Tony Petitti advocating for a format that incorporates more automatic qualifiers. The Big Ten's pushback on conference scheduling is not without merit, but it lacks the power to bring the SEC and ACC to heel on its scheduling. Petitti has suggested that the selection committee's task is impossible, which is a big part of why he has pushed for each power conference to receive multiple automatic bids determined by league standings and play-in games. But support for 14- or 16-team formats with multiple AQs fizzled within the SEC this summer. The new CFP contracts that go into effect after this season give the Big Ten and SEC the final say over the future of the format - though they do require the two richest conferences to seek input from the others.

The Extreme Makeover: 24 or 28 Teams

In a more radical approach, the Big Ten has also floated the idea of a super-sized playoff field consisting of 24 or 28 teams. This proposal would eliminate conference championship games and provide each power conference with a set number of automatic bids, potentially four.

Challenges and Concerns

While a larger playoff field might seem appealing, it also presents several challenges:

Devaluation of the Regular Season: Expanding the playoff to such a significant extent could diminish the importance of regular-season games, as more teams would have a chance to make the playoff regardless of their regular-season performance.
Television Contracts: Every conference has a championship game baked into its television contract. Making those go away is not so easy. The SEC is especially attached to its event.
Logistical Complexities: Accommodating a larger playoff field would require significant logistical adjustments, including scheduling additional games and securing television windows that do not conflict with the NFL.

Criticism of the Big Ten's Proposals

The Big Ten, led by Tony Petitti, spent the offseason concocting absurd College Football Playoff proposals. A 28-team playoff would increase television inventory, but devalue college football's regular season. Imagine unranked teams making the playoff. That's the Big Ten's latest idea. The conference that once held itself aloft as a beacon of all things good and honorable about college athletics is now considering making a mockery of the College Football Playoff.

Petitti just will not rest until he gets every 8-4 Big Ten team into the playoff. His latest playoff idea, according to multiple reports, would expand the playoff to as many as 28 teams and include as many as seven automatic bids apiece for the Big Ten and SEC, with additional automatic bids for other leagues. We’ve now zoomed past 8-4 Iowa toward an even lower rung on the totem pole for playoff mediocrity. Welcome to the playoff hunt, 7-5 Rutgers! This idea doesn't count as radical. It’s ridiculous.

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Growing the playoff to 28 teams would cheapen the regular season. That cannot be the end game. A 28-team playoff does nothing for the Big Ten's upper crust, either. Ohio State doesn't need this. Neither does Michigan, not when it can cheat its way to glory. Oregon couldn't win one playoff game, so now the solution is to shove the Big Ten's champion into a 28-team maze?

The Importance of Compromise

Ultimately, the future of the College Football Playoff hinges on the ability of the power conferences to find common ground. The new CFP contracts that go into effect after this season give the Big Ten and SEC the final say over the future of the format - though they do require the two richest conferences to seek input from the others.

The SEC's Perspective

The selection committee historically values the SEC. The more at-large bids, the better, for the SEC.

The Big Ten's Strategy

Maybe, Petitti believes flooding the zone with zany ideas will spur the SEC toward a suitable compromise. There’s another possibility, though. With each half-baked playoff idea, the Big Ten and its leader further diminish their credibility, and the opportunity for playoff expansion absorbs a gut punch.

The Deadline Looms

The CFP contract with ESPN sets Dec. 1 as a hard deadline to inform the network of a format for the following season. Without it, a decision might never get made.

Sticking with the Status Quo

The commissioners have repeatedly said that if they cannot agree on a new format, sticking with the one they have is an acceptable fallback. With each passing day, the odds of that happening rise. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if sometime in the not-too-distant future, the CFP dropped a news release saying something to the effect of, No change for 2026. We’ll continue to discuss what’s best for college football.

The problem with staying at 12 is that it almost certainly kicks expansion down the road instead of resolving it. It’s a stopgap that buys time for the commissioners to go back to the drawing board and examine other options.

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