Navigating the Gridiron Maze: Understanding NCAA Football Conference Tiebreaker Rules
Conference tiebreaker rules in NCAA football can often seem like a complex maze, yet they play a crucial role in determining conference champions and College Football Playoff (CFP) contenders. These rules, though sometimes intricate, are essential for fairly resolving standings when teams have similar records. This article breaks down the tiebreaker procedures in various conferences, shedding light on how teams can navigate these scenarios to secure a coveted spot in their conference championship game or even a playoff berth.
The American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tiebreakers: A Computer-Driven Controversy?
The American Athletic Conference (AAC) presents an intriguing case study in tiebreaker scenarios. With multiple teams often vying for the top spot, the AAC's tiebreaker rules can significantly impact the conference title race and, potentially, the Group of Five's representation in the College Football Playoff.
Initial Tiebreaker Steps
In an ideal scenario, the AAC season would conclude with only two teams sharing the best record in the conference. However, when a multiple-team tie occurs without clear round-robin results to break it, the conference turns to a series of tiebreakers.
Penultimate Playoff Rankings
The first tiebreaker the American will use is the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings to determine which two teams play for the league title. Should two teams appear in the rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 25, before Week 14 and then win their season finales, that pair would meet in the conference championship. If three teams make those rankings, the title game will feature that week’s two highest-ranked winners.
Computer Metrics as a Deciding Factor
If the playoff rankings do not provide a clear resolution, the AAC turns to computer metrics. The league will split hairs by using the composite average of four computer metrics: ESPN reporter Bill Connolly’s SP+, SportSource Analytics’ TR116 SOR, ESPN’s SOR and the KPI, a measurement tool created by Michigan State associate athletics director Kevin Pagua.
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Teams in Contention
Several teams were in contention for the AAC title, including:
- Navy (8-2, 6-1): Navy finished American play at Memphis on Thanksgiving but won’t put a bow on the regular season until playing Army on Dec. 13. That last game won't have any impact on the College Football Playoff should Navy win the conference. The Midshipmen beat South Florida but lost to North Texas.
- Tulane (8-2, 5-1): Tulane still played Temple and Charlotte. The Green Wave lost to Texas-San Antonio but own wins against East Carolina and Memphis. They didn’t play Navy, North Texas or South Florida.
- North Texas (9-1, 5-1): North Texas played at Rice this weekend and then host Temple on Black Friday. The Mean Green has the win against Navy but lost to South Florida.
- East Carolina (7-3, 5-1): East Carolina closed with road trips to Texas-San Antonio and Florida Atlantic. The Pirates just beat Memphis but lost at Tulane in early October.
- South Florida (7-3, 4-2): South Florida lost to Navy and Memphis but owns the tiebreaker against North Texas. The Bulls are still alive, if barely, with games against Alabama-Birmingham and Rice to end November.
Tiebreaker Scenarios
Several scenarios could unfold to determine the AAC champion:
- The cleanest scenario has Navy beating Memphis, North Texas winning out, Tulane losing to Temple and ECU losing to Texas-San Antonio. That would leave the Midshipmen and Mean Green as the only 7-1 teams in league play.
- Another simple scenario sees North Texas and Tulane win out, Memphis beat Navy and ECU lose once, leaving the Mean Green and Green Wave atop the standings.
Playoff Implications
The ultimate goal for any AAC team is to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. While the conference champion is almost certain to receive a bid, other teams could potentially sneak ahead if the AAC falters.
The Big 12 Conference Tiebreakers: A Path to the Championship Game
The Big 12 Conference also has specific tiebreaker rules to determine which teams will compete in its championship game. These rules prioritize head-to-head results and performance against common opponents.
Initial Tiebreaker Criteria
The Big 12's tiebreaker rules, according to the conference, are as follows:
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- A. The tied teams will be compared based on their head-to-head record during the season.
- B. The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against all common conference opponents.
- C. The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the Conference) proceeding through the standings.
- D. The tied teams will be compared based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents.
- E. The tied teams will be compared based on total number of wins in a 12-game season.
Teams in Contention
Several teams were vying for a spot in the Big 12 championship game:
- Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1 Big 12): Texas Tech has the easiest path to a Big 12 championship game appearance. Beat West Virginia, and you're in. Should the Red Raiders fall to the Mountaineers on the road, they can still reach the title game if BYU loses to either UCF of Cincinnati in its final two conference games.
- BYU (9-1, 6-1): BYU also has a simple path to the Big 12 championship game, punching its ticket with wins in its final two games against UCF and Cincinnati. The Cougars can also land a likely rematch with Texas Tech if they lose once in their final two games Arizona State, who takes on Colorado and Arizona to end the season, also drops one game.
- Arizona State (7-3, 5-2): Arizona State would advance to the Big 12 title game in a 3-way tie against Utah and BYU, due to having a perfect record against common opponents. If ASU ends up in a tiebreaker with just Utah, the Utes would advance due to their win over the Sun Devils.
- Utah (8-2, 5-2): Utah's only path is coming down to a complete collapse by BYU, which isn't likely. Utah could also reach the title game if a 7-way tie for second place somehow came to fruition, due to likely having the highest conference opponent winning percentage.
- Cincinnati (7-3, 5-2): The Bearcats have an extremely slim chance.
- Houston (8-2, 5-2): Just pure carnage.
Tiebreaker Scenarios
Each team's path to the Big 12 championship game depended on a variety of outcomes:
- Texas Tech: Beat West Virginia, or BYU loses to UCF or Cincinnati.
- BYU: Beat UCF and Cincinnati, or lose one of those two games and Arizona State loses to Colorado or Arizona.
- Arizona State: Arizona State and Utah win out and BYU loses once, or Arizona State wins out, BYU loses once and Utah loses once
- Utah: Utah wins out and BYU loses twice and Arizona State loses once, or a 7-way tie for second occurs
- Cincinnati: Cincinnati wins out and Arizona State, Utah and Houston all lose at least once
- Houston: Houston wins out and Arizona State, Utah and Cincinnati lose at least once and BYU loses twice.
The Sun Belt Conference Tiebreakers: Determining Divisional Champions
The Sun Belt Conference utilizes a divisional play format, with two seven-team divisions. The Sun Belt Conference Football Champion will be decided by a game played between the east and west division champions.
Determining Divisional Champions
A division champion shall be the team with the highest winning percentage in all conference games both divisional and non-divisional. A tie football game shall count as half-a-game won and half-a-game lost in the standings.
Tiebreaker Procedures
The Sun Belt employs a series of tiebreakers to determine its divisional champions:
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- If still tied, each team's winning percentage vs the team occupying the next highest position in the final divisional standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team prevails.
- When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group,rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
- If still tied, if one team was ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings and wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, it will be declared the division champion.
- If there are multiple teams ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, if the highest-ranked team wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, they will be declared the division champion.
- If still tied, the division champion will be determined by lot, conducted by the Commissioner.
Tiebreaker for Three or More Teams
For all ties of three or more teams, the progression of the tiebreaker shall be followed until the champion amongst the tied is determined. If one or both of the Sun Belt division champions are ineligible to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, then the divisional team with the next highest winning percentage in all conference games both divisional and nondivisional shall participate.
Host Selection Tiebreaker
- If still tied, if ONE team was ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings and wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season, it will be declared the host.
- If there are MULTIPLE teams ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, the highest-ranked team that wins in the final weekend of the Conference regular season will be declared the host.
- If at any time during this analysis, any team(s) should gain an advantage over the other team(s) tied at that position, the team(s) holding the advantage shall move forward in the tiebreaking process while the other team(s) are eliminated.
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