Decoding NCAA Baseball Betting Odds: A Comprehensive Guide
For newcomers to sports betting, the world of odds and wagering can seem like a foreign language. This guide aims to demystify NCAA baseball betting odds, providing a comprehensive explanation of various bet types and strategies.
Understanding the Basics of Betting Odds
The first step to gaining familiarity is understanding how betting odds work and what they mean. To start, odds can be presented in several different ways, and the numbers have drastically different meanings depending on the system the sportsbook is using. There are three common ways odds are presented: American odds, fractional odds, and decimal odds.
American Odds
American odds can be a bit confusing at first glance. They aren’t as straightforward as decimal or fractional odds. American odds are based on a $100 bet, but the relationship between the odds and $100 varies depending on whether the bet is favored or not.
- Minus (-) odds for favorites: For favored bets, the odds will start with a minus sign (-), and they tell you how much you need to bet to win $100. If the odds are -110, a common number for a bet involving a spread, you would need to bet $110 to win $100 (so your total payout would be $210: your original bet back, plus $100). If your odds are -200, you would need to bet $200 to win $100. Of course, bets don’t have to be that size, but the proportion will scale up or down accordingly. A $10 bet with -200 odds would give you $5 plus your original $10 bet back.
- Plus (+) odds for underdogs: Odds with a plus sign are underdog bets. Plus odds tell you how much profit you will get on a $100 bet. A $100 bet with +200 odds nets you $200 profit plus your original $100 bet (for a total payout of $300). If you bet $20, you would profit $40, plus your original $20 back.
- Even-money odds: These odds are listed as -100, +100 or EV. Even-money odds are fairly rare.
Let’s examine how this works in a real game.
In this game, both the Celtics and Lakers are -110 if you bet them against the spread. The same goes for either side of the total (over/under). The moneyline, which is a bet on a team to win the game by any margin, is where it differs. If you place a $360 bet on the Celtics on the moneyline (-360) and the Celtics win, you would win $100 (plus a return of the original $360 bet). The Lakers are the underdog, so they have plus odds. A $100 bet would win $280, in addition to the original $100 bet.
Read also: Anthony Robles: Overcoming Obstacles
Fractional Odds
Decimal and fractional odds are more common outside the United States, but can be found in some American sportsbooks as well. Both have similar principles.
Fractional odds are, as the name suggests, displayed as fractions, such as 3-1 or 7-4. Multiplying the bet amount by the fraction will show the profit. Betting $10 with 3-1 odds will yield a $30 profit, plus your $10 stake back.
For a more complex fraction, like 7-10, here’s how to do the math for a $10 bet: Multiply the $10 by the numerator, which in this case is 7, then divide by the denominator, which is 4. That gives you 70 divided by 4, or 17.50. So, betting $10 with 7-4 odds would net $17.50 plus the original $10.
Favorite bets will have a denominator larger than the numerator, such as 1-2 or 2-5. Underdog bets will have the numerator bigger than the denominator, as in the examples above.
In America, fractional odds are most commonly used in futures betting, where almost all the odds have a denominator of 1, making them easier to understand. Here’s an example of NFL futures from 2022.
Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile
Decimal Odds
Decimal odds are shown as one number, which is the amount a winning bet would collect on a $1 bet. If the odds are listed as 6, a winning bet would receive a $5 profit and the original $1 bet. Anything between 1 and 2 is a favorite bet, and 2 is an even money bet.
These are more commonly used outside the US when the fractions used in fractional odds get a bit ugly. For example, it’s fairly common to see American odds of -115, but that converts to 20-23 in fractional odds. Quick, do the math of the return on a $10 bet with 20-23 odds. Ew. The decimal odds would be listed at 1.87, making for much easier math on this $10 bet. Multiply the odds by the bet, and you get the return that would include the original bet. Much easier, right? The return would be $18.70. This is a case where decimal odds can be better.
Converting Odds to a Break-Even Percentage
No matter how the odds are presented, being able to convert your odds into a break-even percentage is a crucial part of understanding what is actually a good bet.
Let’s use a +200 moneyline as an example. These odds mean that a $100 bet will win you $200 for a total profit of $300. To get implied odds, you divide 100 by the original odds plus 100: 100 / (200 + 100). Here, the implied odds are 33.33 percent. So, odds of +200 mean the book is giving you the odds that the bet will come in one-third of the time. If you think the likelihood is higher than that, it is a good bet. This is similar to pot odds in poker, for example.
Think of a coin flip. You know you have a one-in-two chance of heads coming up. If you are given odds better than one-in-two, it’s a good bet. Typically, you won’t know the exact odds because sporting events aren’t that predictable, but this is a key principle to keep in mind when evaluating a bet, especially on a moneyline.
Read also: The Return of College Football Gaming
This principle can be applied if you have a projection model, like Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner’s Slingshot model for predicting NCAA men’s basketball tournament upsets, or Austin Mock’s model for predicting college and NFL results. These models give you a percentage chance of various outcomes. That percentage can be compared to moneyline odds, once you convert the odds to a percentage.
Types of Bets in NCAA Baseball
Once you understand how to interpret betting odds, you can begin to explore the different types of bets available in NCAA baseball. Here are some of the most common options:
Moneyline Bets
You are simply placing a bet on who you think will win the game. Odds are displayed with the away team listed first or on top and the home team listed second or on the bottom. The side with the (+) plus sign indicates which team is the underdog, while the (-) minus sign indicates the favorite. If you want the bet on an underdog the number behind the plus sign is what you will win if you bet $100. If you take the favorite you have to bet the number following the minus sign to win $100.
It’s also important to note that with baseball money lines you have the option of listing pitchers or going with “action.” What listing a pitcher with your bet does is make sure that pitcher starts for the bet to be valid. If you list a pitcher and he doesn’t start, the bet is a push and you will get your money back. You can list the pitcher of the team you are taking, the opposing pitcher, or both. If you list neither pitcher it’s an “action” bet and as long as the game is finished your bet will be graded.
Example:
Philadelphia Phillies +120New York Mets -130
In this example the Phillies are the underdog playing on the road against the Mets. If you like betting underdogs then taking Philadelphia to win a $100 bet would win you $120. If you wanted to take New York you would have to risk $130 to win $100.
*In the example above the the odds are listed using dime lines. A dime line just means the sportsbook uses a 10 cent spread between the favorite and the underdog. A lot of books do this, but others will have a 20 cent spread. If you are playing at a book with a worse set of lines like this your profits can really be eaten up over the course of a season.
Total (Over/Under) Bets
Over/under or totals bets are wagers in which you are predicting the total runs scored by both teams. Oddsmakers will set a total for each game. You have the option of either betting on both teams to score more or less than the number listed. It’s important to note that runs scored in extra innings count towards the total. If a game ends exactly on the total, it’s considered a push, and your bet is simply refunded. All wagers are considered a push if the game is suspended prior to playing a full 9 innings or 8.5 if the home team is leading.
Example:
Philadelphia/New YorkOVER 8 -120UNDER 8 +100
In this case if you wanted the OVER you would have to bet $120 to win $100, while the UNDER would only require a $100 bet to win $100.
Team Totals
This is similar to betting the over/under on the total of a game, expect here you are focusing on simply the total runs scored by one team instead of both. This is a popular wager when you have a pitching mismatch. If one team has their ace on the mound and the other team is calling a guy up to make a spot start, it’s hard to feel confident betting the over/under for both teams combined. Instead you would rather take the individual team under on the team going up against the ace and the over on the team against a spot starter. The problem with this wager is that books will typically make you pay big juice on both sides in an obvious spot like this, decreasing your chances of showing a profit over the long-run. The key is finding value where it’s not so obvious. For example, there could be value on a individual team under, who is facing an average starter that’s a fly ball pitcher with the wind blowing in or a road team like the Rockies who score far fewer runs on the road than they do at home.
Run Line Bets
In baseball betting, the run line is a 1.5-run spread set between two teams. Run lines are baseball's version of the point spread, most commonly set as a 1.5-run spread. Betting baseball run lines versus moneylines depends on how much the bettor is willing to risk or return from their bets. A run line favorite is set at -1.5 while the underdog is +1.5. The run line is the closest thing you will find to a spread in baseball betting. The standard run line is 1.5, which is what we will focus on here. The favorite on the money line will be listed at -1.5 on the run line. What this means is that the team laying -1.5 runs has to win by 2 or more or you lose your bet. On the flip side of this, the underdog on the money will be listed at +1.5 on the run line, which means they either have to win the game outright or lose by just 1 run.
Example:
Philadelphia +1.5 (-140)New York -1.5 (+130)
Due to the fact that the majority of baseball games are decided by 1 run or see the underdog winning outright, the odds change drastically from the money line. If you remember back to our first example where the Mets were -130 on the money line (risk $130 to win $100). If you were to play the -1.5 run on New York, you now get them at +130 (risk $100 to win $130). The only difference is they have to now win the game by 2 or more runs instead of just winning the game by an margin. Run lines are a popular way to reduce your risk if you like the favorite. For instance, late in the year many baseball favorites can be -200 or more. If you take those teams on the run line you reduce the amount you have to wager relative to what you will win.
Betting the baseball run line odds can be confusing because the team set as the run line favorite often carries a higher risk. In our previous example, Toronto’s run line is -1.5 and the price of that bet - also known as juice or vig - is +160. Boston has a +1.5 run line, with the vig at -160. Bookmakers will constantly adjust those run line prices to balance the handle (total amount of money bet on a game) on either side to limit liability. For example, suppose the Blue Jays run line of -1.5 opens at +160 and takes most of the betting money on the run line odds. In that case, bookmakers could move the vig down (perhaps to +150) while adjusting the Res Sox' +1.5 vig (moving to -150). Whatever run line odds you place your bet at are the odds you bet is graded on, regardless of where the moneylines may move before the game starts. Due to the lower payouts, many new baseball bettors will shy away from high-priced MLB moneyline favorites. If you feel strongly about a big favorite, opt for the -1.5 run line instead of laying the hefty outright odds. Because sportsbooks price run line favorites like underdogs and run line dogs like favorites, just looking into a team’s record versus the run line doesn’t tell the whole story. Instead, look at units won as a run line favorite or underdog before putting weight into any team’s run line record. Like all MLB odds, run lines are fluid and move as bets come in at sportsbooks. Just like researching moneyline bets, run line bettors will want to dig into the starting pitchers, batting lineups, home/away splits, injuries, and weather when sizing up that day’s baseball run line betting options. You can find all this information in our in-depth MLB matchups, including run line records and returns.
Series Betting
Unlike other sports during the regular season, where teams rarely play the same opponent in consecutive games, in baseball teams typically play anywhere from a 2-4 game series against the same opponent. Instead of trying to go game-by-game and determine who will win, you can place a wager on who you think will win the series. The odds are presented in a similar format to that as a money line on an individual game, but the favorites will come at a much higher price. It’s not uncommon for the better team to lose a game against a weaker opponent, but more times than not they will win the majority of the time.
Parlays
A parlay is when you combine two or more bets together. The only catch is that all of the bets must win or you lose the wager. What makes parlays a popular bet, is they allow you to reduce the risk while increasing the payouts. The only problem is that probability of winning a parlay bet is much lower than that of betting games individually. For example, say you liked 5 plays and they were all listed at -120 on the money line. If you parlay 5 teams and go 4-1, you win nothing. On the other hand, if you bet each game individually, you would have won $280 ($100 + $100 + $100 + $1000 - $120). Baseball is one of the best sports for Same Game Parlays. With an SGP, players can pick a single baseball matchup, select numerous wagers that will all be resolved over the course of the game and bundle them together to create the ultimate sweat. Hard Rock Bet users can combine markets like the moneyline, spread, total, and player props - all from one specific game.
Props
Some books have proposition bets for both individual games and the entire season. They will post odds on nearly everything from how many strikeouts a pitcher will have, who will win the MVP, how many home runs a player will have, what team will score first, etc. I do like prop bets, but you have to see how big of a spread your book offers. On a lot of these exotic wagers books know they are exposed and will thus only offer 30+ cents on the action, which means you have to be able to hit a high percentage in order to show a profit. Bettors can take these individual stats and place wagers on their outcomes. Anytime home run markets? Pitcher strikeout totals? Total bases?
Futures
If you want the biggest bang for your buck look to place your action on futures wagers. The most common future bet is the odds to win the World Series, but you can also bet on who will win each division, as well as the pennant. The only problem with futures bets is that you must be prepared to have a chunk of your bankroll tied up for close to 7 months . This is why I recommend not getting carried away with placing too many future bets before the season starts, as there’s more money to be won with the actual games. Awards markets and player props are a huge part of baseball futures. Betting on players to win the AL or NL MVP, Cy Young Award, or Rookie of the Year are fun ways to play - and Hard Rock Bet offers action on each.
Season Win Totals
One of my favorite types of futures bets are season win totals. Prior to the season starting, oddsmakers set a number of wins for each team and give you the option of betting whether you think they will go over or under that mark. If you put the research into it, you can normally find a few strong bets each season. The thing to keep in mind is that the books aren’t just throwing numbers out there for win totals. If a team has a win total set at 78 when they only won 70 the previous year, chances are the smart play is on the over not the under.
Strategies for Betting on College Baseball
Early Season Futures
Understanding this market tendency is an important part of handicapping college baseball. Futures bets made at this point should be based on getting ahead of the hyper-focused population of college baseball bettors. This is likely going to happen even more this season now that DraftKings is prominently displaying the NCAA Baseball tab on its homepage. Compared to the rest of the spring betting menu, college baseball often prioritizes futures over daily plays.
College World Series
Every year, teams square off to be the final club standing in the glorious dogpile at the center of Charles Schwab Field. There are a few things I look for when analyzing this market, all important in my opinion, but the most important is the draw. Next, I look at roster construction. Questions like how deep does the pitching staff go, can they withstand a five game regional, do they have Omaha experience in older guys on the roster, can they get through the Omaha path? Finally, I like to look at the offense, defensive numbers, strength of schedule, common opponents, anything that will give an idea of how that team performs. We can’t forget the intangibles, specifically coaching.
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