Navigating the Complex World of NCAA Football Tiebreaker Rules
Conference realignment has significantly reshaped the landscape of college football, bringing about both anticipated and unforeseen consequences. Among these is the intricate realm of tiebreaker rules, particularly crucial for determining conference championship game participants in a division-less era. With many FBS conferences eliminating divisions due to team additions or losses, the determination of who competes for conference titles now hinges on regular-season standings, increasing the potential for multiple teams to conclude the season with identical conference records. This article delves into the tiebreaker rules of various conferences, shedding light on the processes used to determine championship game contenders.
The End of Divisions and the Rise of Tiebreakers
The shift away from divisions in college football conferences has created a scenario where the top two teams in the regular-season standings, regardless of their geographical location within the conference, advance to the championship game. This structure amplifies the significance of tiebreaker rules, especially in conferences with a large number of teams where not every team plays each other. The potential for multiple teams to finish with the same conference record elevates the importance of understanding these tiebreakers.
Tiebreaker Rules Across Conferences
To navigate this complex landscape, let's examine the tiebreaker rules employed by several major conferences: ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC. Additionally, we will explore tiebreaker policies in American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, and Sun Belt Conference.
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Tiebreaker Rules
In the ACC, a two-team tie is resolved using the following criteria:
- Head-to-head competition between the tied teams.
- Win percentage versus all common opponents.
- Win percentage versus common opponents based on their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken).
- Combined win percentage of conference opponents.
- Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics.
- A draw administered by the commissioner.
For multi-team ties, the ACC employs a different set of factors to determine a single winner:
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- Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.
- If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, no tied team defeated each of the other tied teams, but a tied team lost to each of the other tied teams, such team shall be eliminated and removed from the tie
- Win percentage versus all common opponents.
- Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken).
- Combined win percentage of conference opponents.
- Higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics.
- A draw administered by the commissioner.
Big Ten Conference Tiebreaker Rules
The Big Ten utilizes the following criteria to break a two-team tie:
- Head-to-head game winner.
- Win percentage among common conference opponents.
- Comparison of records against common opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
- Comparison of records based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
- Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (Team Rating Score metric).
- Random draw conducted by the commissioner.
In the event of a multi-team tie, the Big Ten considers these factors:
Comparison of records based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams.
- If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie)
- If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker
Comparison of records based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie
Comparison of records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings in order of finish
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Comparison of records based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
- In the event of an unbalanced schedule (i.e., less than nine conference games are played), the records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, regardless of how many conference opponents each team played. If winning percentage is equal for all conference opponents, move to next step in tiebreaker
The representative will be chosen by the by the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season
Random draw among the tied teams conducted by commissioner or designee
Big 12 Conference Tiebreaker Rules
The Big 12 employs these tiebreaker rules for two-team ties:
- Head-to-head competition among the two tied teams.
- Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams.
- Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings.
- Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents.
- Total number of wins in a 12-game season, with limitations on wins against lower-division teams.
- Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (Team Rating Score metric).
- Coin toss.
For multi-team ties, the Big 12 utilizes a similar approach to the Big Ten:
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The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams:
- If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie)
- If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker
The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie
Record of the three (or more) tied teams against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams
Record of the three (or more) tied teams based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule)
Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: Only one win against a team from the NCAA FCS or lower division will be counted annually. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules
Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games
Coin toss
Southeastern Conference (SEC) Tiebreaker Rules
The SEC employs the following criteria for two-team ties:
- Head-to-head competition among the tied teams.
- Record versus all common conference opponents among tied teams.
- Record against the highest-placed common conference opponent in the conference standings.
- Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams.
- Higher relative total scoring margin per SportSource Analytics versus all conference opponents among tied teams.
- Random draw of the tied teams.
In the case of multi-team ties, the SEC considers:
- Head-to-head competition among tied teams
- Record versus all common conference opponents among tied teams
- Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent, proceeding through the conference standings among tied teams
- Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams
- Higher relative total scoring margin per SportSource Analytics versus all conference opponents among the tied teams
- Random draw of the tied teams
American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tiebreaker Rules
The American Athletic Conference uses the following tiebreaker policy:
Two-Team Tie:
- Head-to-head
- If one team is ranked in the latest CFP rankings (and didn't lose in the final weekend of the regular season)
- If one team is ranked in the latest CFP rankings and lost in the final weekend of the regular season, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
- If both teams are ranked, the higher-ranked team that didn't lose in the final weekend of the regular season (if both lose, a composite average of metrics)
- If neither team is ranked in the latest CFP rankings, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
- Win percentage against common conference opponents
- Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference) excluding exempt games
- Coin toss
Three-Plus Team Tie:
- Combined head-to-head (if all teams played each other)
- If one tied team defeated all other tied teams
- If the highest-ranked team in the latest CFP rankings that didn't lose in the final weekend of the regular season
- If the highest-ranked team loses in final weekend of regular season, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
- If multiple ranked teams in the CFP rankings, the highest ranked team(s) that wins in the final weekend of the regular season
- If all ranked teams lose on the final weekend, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
- If no teams are ranked in the final CFP rankings, a composite average of selected metrics will be used
- Win percentage against common conference opponents
- Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference) excluding exempt games
- Coin toss
Conference USA Tiebreaker Rules
Conference USA uses the same tiebreaker policy for both two-team and three-team ties:
- Head-to-head
- Highest CFP rankings going into the final weekend (if team wins in the final weekend)
- Highest average ranking of four computer rankings (Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN SOR, KPI Rankings)
- Highest average ranking of two computer rankings (SportSource, KPI Rankings)
- Highest most recently published multiyear football Academic Progress Rate (if same, most recent year)
- Draw administered by commissioner's designee
Mid-American Conference (MAC) Tiebreaker Rules
The Mid-American Conference uses the following tiebreaker policy:
Two-Team Tie:
- Head-to-head
- Win percentage against common opponents
- Win percentage against common opponents based on MAC finish (breaking ties) from top-to-bottom of conference
- Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
- Higher ranking by Team Rating Score metric (SportSource Analytics)
- Draw administered by MAC commissioner
Three-Team Tie:
- Combined head-to-head (if all teams played each other)
- If one tied team defeated all other tied teams
- Win percentage against all common opponents
- Win percentage against all common opponents based on finish (with ties broken)
- Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
- Higher ranking by Team Rating Score metric (SportSource Analytics)
- Draw administered by MAC commissioner
Mountain West Conference Tiebreaker Rules
The Mountain West Conference uses the following tiebreaker policy:
Two-Team Tie:
- Head-to-head
- Highest CFP ranking (if team wins in the final weekend)
- If only or both CFP ranked teams loses in the final weekend (or if there is no ranked teams), an average of metrics will be used
- Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference)
- Record against the next-highest team in the conference standings (tied teams will be lumped together if tied teams played all those teams)
- Win percentage against common conference opponents
- Coin toss conducted virtually by the commissioner
Three-Plus Team Tie:
- Combined head-to-head (if all teams played each other)
- If one tied team defeated all other tied teams
- Highest CFP ranking among teams to win in the final weekend
- Average of selected metrics (if ranked team loses or if no teams ranked)
- Overall win percentage against all opponents (conference and nonconference); maximum one win against FCS or lower-division team
- Record against the next-highest team in the conference standings (tied teams will be lumped together if tied teams played all those teams)
- Win percentage against common conference opponents
- Drawing conducted virtually by the commissioner
Sun Belt Conference Tiebreaker Rules
The Sun Belt Conference uses the following tiebreaker policy:
Two-Team Tie:
- Head-to-head
- Overall win percentage
- Win percentage against the next-highest team in the division standings (lumping together tied teams)
- Win percentage against all common nondivisional conference opponents
- Higher-ranked teams in the CFP rankings (if it wins in the final regular season week); if the highest-ranked team loses, an average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Massey, Colley and Wolfe)
- If no team is ranked in the CFP rankings, an average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Massey, Colley and Wolfe)
- Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference) against FBS teams
- Coin toss
Three-Plus Team Tie: (Teams will not revert to two-team tiebreaker once three-plus team tiebreaker is trimmed to two.)
- Combined head-to-head
- Divisional win percentage
- Win percentage against the next-highest team in the division standings (lumping together tied teams)
- Highest-ranked team in the CFP rankings (if they win in the final weekend of regular season); if that team loses, an average of selected computer rankings
- If no team is ranked in the CFP rankings, an average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Massey, Colley and Wolfe)
- Overall win percentage (conference and nonconference) against FBS teams
The Complexity and Potential Solutions
The elimination of divisions has undoubtedly complicated the process of determining conference championship matchups. The tiebreaker rules, while intended to provide clarity, can be complex and difficult for the average fan (and even coaches) to understand. As Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham humorously admitted, navigating these scenarios can feel like deciphering a recipe involving "ranch dressing falls on a wing."
Several solutions have been proposed to address this dilemma. One suggestion involves incorporating College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings into the tiebreaker process. This approach would leverage the existing CFP committee's expertise to settle deadlocks in conference standings, providing a more transparent and understandable method for determining championship game participants. Lane Kiffin, the coach of Mississippi, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that using the top two teams in the CFP rankings would simplify the process.
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