NCAA Basketball: Tips and Tricks for Beginners

March Madness is an exciting time of year when approximately 80 million people enthusiastically follow their NCAA brackets. Joining the action for the first time can be intimidating. This guide provides helpful tips and tricks for beginners to navigate the NCAA basketball tournament and enhance their bracket experience.

Understanding the Basics

Tournament Overview

The main NCAA tournament features 64 teams divided into four regions. These regions aren't typically based on the schools' locations but rather where the games are played. Within each region, teams are seeded from 1 to 16, with matchups determined by seeding. For example, the No. 1 seed plays the No. 16 seed, No. 2 plays No. 15, and so on. The tournament operates on a single-elimination basis, meaning a team is out after one loss.

Eventually, one team emerges victorious from each of the four regions, forming the Final Four. The two teams from the left side of the bracket compete, and the winner faces the winner from the right side. The ultimate victor of this final game is crowned the national champion.

The "First Four"

You may hear about the "First Four" games leading up to the main tournament. These are four games played before the official start of the tournament, where eight teams compete for the final four slots in the 64-team bracket. Think of it as a pre-tournament before the main event.

Do you need to pay attention to the First Four? Not necessarily. Some bracket pools include these games, while others don't. These teams are generally considered long shots and aren't expected to go far in the tournament, but they can make surprising runs.

Filling Out Your Bracket

The Higher Seed Advantage

Generally, the higher-seeded a team is, the more likely they are to win. On average, higher seeds win about 70% of the time, especially among the top three seeds in each region. Leaning on the rankings is a good starting point.

The Allure of Upsets

While picking all the highest-seeded teams ("picking chalk") is a safe strategy, upsets are a common and exciting part of the tournament. On average, there are about a dozen games where the lower-seeded team wins. Upsets are most frequent when the teams are separated by only a few seed spots. Even upsets in games where teams are separated by five or more spots happen about eight times per tournament. To play it somewhat safe, aim to pick five to seven upsets.

Identifying Potential Upsets

Picking the right upsets is tricky. Seeds can be helpful, as can understanding how bracket scoring works. Most bracket pools award points for each correct pick, with points increasing in later rounds. Upsets typically occur in the first two rounds, so it's generally safer to avoid picking upsets against No. 1, 2, or 3 seeds in those early rounds.

For example, a No. 1 seed has only lost to a No. 16 seed twice in history, and No. 2 seeds have only lost to No. 15 seeds 11 times out of 156. The closer two seeds are, the more likely an upset is. Therefore, a No. 10 seed beating a No. 7 seed is a safer pick than a No. 14 seed beating a No. 3 seed.

Historical Upset Trends

Analyzing past tournaments can offer insights into potential upsets. Looking at the last 40 NCAA tournaments, there have been at least 10 upsets (defined as a team seeded at least five seed lines worse than their opponent winning) in 15 of those seasons. The average is a little over eight upsets per year. Keep in mind that upsets have become more frequent in recent years.

Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile

Here's a breakdown of upset seed matchups:

No. 11 seed over No. 6 seed
No. 12 seed over No. 5 seed
No. 13 seed over No. 4 seed
No. 14 seed over No. 3 seed
No. 15 seed over No. 2 seed
No. 16 seed over No. 1 seed

Teams seeded No. 7 or No. 10 have upset a No. 2 seed 47 times in the past 40 tournaments. History suggests picking at least one No. 2 seed to lose in the second round.

Strategic Considerations for Men's Bracket Challenge Game (MBCG)

While aiming for a perfect bracket is statistically improbable (1 in 120.2 billion), winning bragging rights in your Men's Bracket Challenge Game group is achievable. Here are some strategies based on past MBCG winners:

Correct Picks: MBCG winners average around 52 correct picks out of 63 games. Many incorrect picks occur in the early rounds.
Predicting the Title Game: Accurately predicting the title game teams significantly improves your leaderboard position.

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Final Four Focus: Concentrating on the Final Four is crucial. MBCG winners have correctly picked 38 out of 40 Final Four teams.
Early Round Losses: Don't worry too much about missing a few No. 8 vs. No. 9 games or other early-round upsets. It's all about timing and accumulating points in later, higher-value rounds.

Embrace Imperfection

You won't get every game right. No one ever has. Don't be discouraged by early losses; focus on the later rounds.

Tiebreakers and Personal Preferences

If you're struggling to decide between two teams, use arbitrary tiebreakers that entertain you. This could be which team name would win in a fight, which school's city you'd rather live in, or even the team with the player who has the most letters in their name.

Tournament Schedule and Viewing

Key Dates

First Round: Begins Thursday, March 20, with games happening all day Thursday and Friday.
Second Round: Saturday and Sunday following the first round.
Sweet Sixteen: Begins the following Thursday, March 27.
Elite Eight: Saturday and Sunday after the Sweet Sixteen.
Final Four: The following Saturday.
National Championship Game: Monday, April 7.

Viewing Options

You don't have to watch every game. Watch as many or as few as you like. By the Sweet Sixteen, you'll likely know if your bracket has a chance to win your pool.

Additional Tips

Limit Brackets: Avoid filling out too many brackets to prevent conflicting picks.
Have Fun: Filling out a bracket is a low-cost, high-benefit endeavor.
Don't Pick a 16 Seed to Win: It's only happened twice in the history of the tournament.

Navigating the NCAA's Official Bracket Challenge

Sign Up

Visit NCAA.com's Official Bracket Challenge and sign up for free.

Make Your Picks

Select a winner for every matchup in the bracket.

Watch the Games

Follow your bracket's progress live on TV or stream through the March Madness Live app.

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