Navigating the Upsets: A Comprehensive Guide to NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks

The NCAA Tournament, also known as March Madness, is famous for its unpredictability. The term "upset" is frequently heard during the tournament. An upset is defined as when the winning team in an NCAA tournament game was seeded at least five seed lines worse than the losing team. This article aims to provide a comprehensive guide to identifying potential upsets in the NCAA Tournament, drawing on historical data, statistical analysis, and expert predictions.

Understanding the Frequency of Upsets

Analyzing the last 39 NCAA tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985 reveals that upsets are a common occurrence. In 15 of those 39 seasons, there have been at least 10 upsets. The annual average is roughly 8.5 upsets. While the number of upsets can vary significantly from year to year, ranging from a low of three in 2007 to a high of 14 in 2021 and 2022, the trend suggests that upsets have become more frequent in recent years, with at least 10 upsets occurring in nine of the past 13 years. In the 2023 NCAA tournament, there were exactly 10 upsets.

For those looking to strategically incorporate upsets into their bracket picks, aiming for 11 upsets might be a calculated risk, as this has happened five times in the past (1986, 2002, 2006, 2011, and 2013). Playing it somewhat safe, selecting five to seven upsets is a reasonable approach, as there have been only 12 NCAA tournaments in the last 39 years with fewer than seven upsets, and only once since 2010.

Historical Upset Trends by Seed

Examining historical data reveals patterns in which seed matchups are most prone to upsets. Here's a breakdown:

No. 11 seed over No. 6 seed: This is a relatively common upset scenario.
No. 12 seed over No. 5 seed: This is another frequently seen upset.
No. 13 seed over No. 4 seed: While less frequent than the previous two, this upset does occur.
No. 14 seed over No. 3 seed: This is a rarer upset, but it has happened.
No. 15 seed over No. 2 seed: This is a significant upset that has gained notoriety in recent years.
No. 16 seed over No. 1 seed: This is the rarest upset in the tournament, but it has occurred a few times in recent years.

The individual matchups for upsets, in terms of seeding, become less common after the first round, based on the results of the first-round games. But in keeping with the rule that an upset is defined by a seed ranked at least five spots worse, we combined some of the seed lines within individual four-team pods (e.g. a No. 7/No. 10 seed upsetting a No. 2 seed or a No. 8/No. 9 seed upsetting a No. 1 seed).

Teams seeded No. 7 or No. 10 have upset a No. 2 seed 46 times in the past 39 tournaments (roughly 1.2 per year), so history tells us you should probably pick at least one No. 2 seed to lose in the second round. On average, a No. 7 seed vs. 11 seed vs. 10 seed vs. 8 seed vs. 12 seed vs. 9 seed vs. 15 seed vs. 13 seed vs. 14 seed vs.

Last year, one No. 14 seed, one No. 13 seed, two No. 12 seeds and three No.

Expert Predictions and Analysis for 2025

As March Madness 2025 approaches, experts are diligently analyzing potential upsets. Slingshot, a model powered by Furman math professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris, and Kevin Hutson, uses advanced metrics to identify teams that fit the statistical profiles of past Cinderellas and vulnerable giants. The model creates basic power ratings, adjusts them based on statistical profiles, incorporates cluster analysis, and analyzes matchups to generate its list of likeliest first-round upsets.

Here are Slingshot's 10 most likely first-round upsets for 2025:

No. 11 San Diego State* vs. No. 6 Ole Miss: 43.9 percent (*This would first require San Diego State to oust North Carolina in the play-in game.)
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU: 43.1 percent
No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis: 42.2 percent
No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan: 37.7 percent
No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri: 33.7 percent
No. 11 North Carolina* vs. No. 6 Ole Miss: 32 percent (*This would first require North Carolina to oust San Diego State in the play-in game.)
No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon: 31.4 percent
No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson: 30.9 percent
No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue: 28.4 percent
No. 11 Xavier* vs. No. Sep 15, 2025

Popular Upset Picks in Men's Bracket Challenge Game

Men's Bracket Challenge Game (BCG) users are also weighing in on their upset picks. This year, No. 11 Drake, No. 11 North Carolina, No. 12 Colorado State, and No. 11 VCU are popular choices for upsets, defined as wins by a team seeded at least five seeds lower than its opponent. The Bulldogs lead the pack, with a significant percentage of Men's BCG entries picking them to knock out No. 5 Missouri.

For those seeking deeper Cinderella stories, Men's BCG brackets are leaning towards No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue, No. 14 Lipscomb vs. No. 3 Iowa State, No. 15 Omaha vs. No. 2 St. John's, and No. 16 SIU Edwardsville vs. No. 1 Houston.

Specific Seed Matchups to Watch

Analyzing specific seed matchups can provide further insights into potential upsets:

No. 16 Seeds

Historically, No. 16 seeds are the least-picked upsets. Only a few No. 16 seeds have ever beaten No. 1 seeds, though they've come since 2018. Matchups to watch include:

No. 16 SIU Edwardsville vs. No. 1 Houston
No. 16 Norfolk State vs. No. 1
No. 16 Alabama State vs. No. 1
No. 16 Mount St. Mary's vs. No. 1

No. 15 Seeds

Will we see another 15-over-2 upset this year? There was a three-year run of 15s beating 2s - 2021 Oral Roberts beating Ohio State, 2022 Saint Peter's defeating Kentucky and 2023 Princeton topping Arizona - before all No. 2 seeds won last season. Key matchups include:

No. 15 Omaha vs. No. 2 St. John's
No. 15 Bryant vs. No. 2
No. 15 Wofford vs. No. 2
No. 15 Robert Morris vs. No. 2

No. 14 Seeds

Oakland was the least-picked No. 14 seed and yet the Golden Grizzlies were the only 14 to win a game in 2023. Matchups to consider:

Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile

No. 14 Lipscomb vs. No. 3 Iowa State
No. 14 Montana vs. No. 3
No. 14 Troy vs. No. 3
No. 14 UNC Wilmington vs. No. 3

No. 13 Seeds

High Point and Yale are both ahead of last year's most-picked 13 seed. Yale's mark is likely helped by fans remembering the Bulldogs' upset of No. 4 Auburn in the first round just last year. Key matchups include:

No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue
No. 13 Yale vs. No. 4
No. 13 Akron vs. No. 4
No. 13 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4

No. 12 Seeds

James Madison and Grand Canyon were the most-picked 12s last year and ended up advancing to the second round. Matchups to watch include:

No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis
No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan
No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon
No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson

No. 11 Seeds

The 11 seeds aren't as popular as they were last year - one year after three 11s won in the first round and one even made the Final Four. But the top two this year do come in ahead of all 2023 No. Drake is the top upset pick overall across seed lines. The Bulldogs are competing in March Madness for the third season in a row and fourth time in five years. Key matchups include:

No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri
No. 11 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU
No. 11 Xavier vs. No.

Potential Sweet 16 Upsets

As each round of the men's NCAA basketball tournament passes, the idea of the upset loses some luster. There are examples that go against this idea, of course. George Mason, VCU and Loyola Chicago’s runs to the Final Four as No. 11 seeds didn’t feel any less stunning the further they advanced in the bracket. No. 15 seed Saint Mary’s beating Purdue in the Sweet 16 in 2022 felt just as shocking as its win a week earlier against Kentucky.

Still, possible upsets lurk. Here’s a look at four potential upsets in the Sweet 16:

No. 10 Arkansas over No. 3 Texas Tech: John Calipari’s Razorbacks are hitting their stride at just the right moment.
No. 6 BYU over No. 2 Alabama: Both the Cougars and Crimson Tide have potent offenses that do significant damage beyond the arc, which could make this a game in which the first team to 90 wins.
No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 2 Michigan State: Ole Miss has a senior-laden core that has exceptional balance offensively, with six players averaging at least 10 points per game.
No. 3 Kentucky over No. 2 Tennessee: Mark Pope’s Wildcats are 2-0 against Tennessee this season despite being without at least one crucial rotation player for each of the matchups.

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