NCAA Tournament Upset Predictions: Finding the Cinderellas of March Madness

As the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament progresses, the allure of upsets might seem to diminish, but history proves that March Madness always has surprises in store. While the likelihood of a major upset decreases as the tournament narrows, potential Cinderella stories still exist. This article delves into potential upsets, examining teams poised to defy expectations and advance further than predicted.

The Enduring Appeal of the Upset

Instances like George Mason, VCU, and Loyola Chicago's improbable Final Four runs as No. 11 seeds demonstrate that the magic of upsets doesn't fade with each round. Similarly, No. 15 seed Saint Mary's victory over Purdue in the Sweet 16 in 2022 was as stunning as their earlier triumph against Kentucky. Even as the tournament progresses, the possibility of a lower-seeded team knocking off a favorite remains a captivating aspect of March Madness.

Identifying Potential Sweet Sixteen Upsets

Here's an analysis of potential Sweet Sixteen upsets:

No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech

John Calipari's Arkansas Razorbacks are peaking at the opportune moment. After a rocky 12-8 start, they've surged to a 10-5 record since February, with eight of those wins against NCAA Tournament teams. This team, brimming with former five-star recruits and sought-after transfers, is beginning to realize its potential, showcasing a blend of length, speed, and athleticism that few remaining teams can match.

A key question for Arkansas is the availability of leading scorer Adou Thiero, who has been sidelined for the past eight games with a hyperextended knee. However, the Razorbacks proved their ability to overcome this challenge by neutralizing and defeating Rick Pitino's St. John's team, with players like Billy Richmond stepping up.

Calipari has a history of leading underachieving but talented teams on deep tournament runs, as he did with Kentucky in 2014. Texas Tech is formidable, especially with forward JT Toppin, but Arkansas might just have the edge.

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama

This matchup promises a barrage of three-point attempts. Both BYU and Alabama boast potent offenses that excel from beyond the arc, suggesting a high-scoring affair where the first team to 90 might win.

BYU has been on a tear, boasting an 11-1 record since Feb. 11. According to Bart Torvik's data, they've been the fourth-best team in the nation during this stretch, trailing only Duke, Houston, and Florida. Following impressive wins against VCU and Wisconsin, BYU could secure their biggest victory yet against an Alabama team aiming for a Final Four return.

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State

Michigan State is known for its toughness and physicality, but Ole Miss is one of the few teams that can match them in these areas. Ole Miss features a senior-laden core with exceptional offensive balance, with six players averaging at least 10 points per game. While Michigan State boasts one of the nation's top defenses, Ole Miss recently dismantled a similarly strong Iowa State defense, scoring 91 points in a 13-point victory.

Ole Miss, with 24 wins (tied for the most in the past 23 years), is following a familiar pattern under coach Chris Beard, who led Texas Tech to an Elite Eight in his second season in 2018. Beard's reputation as a strong postseason coach could prove decisive against Tom Izzo.

Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile

No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee

Despite the narrow seed difference, Kentucky is a 4.5-point underdog, making this a potential upset. Mark Pope's Kentucky team is 2-0 against Tennessee this season, even with missing crucial players in each game. While they'll be without Jaxson Robinson due to injury, they still managed an 11-point win over the Volunteers on Feb. 11.

The adage that it's difficult to beat a team three times in a season holds some weight, but sometimes one team is simply a bad matchup for another. Kentucky seems to have Tennessee's number this year.

Bracket Breakers: Identifying First-Round Upset Opportunities

Predicting NCAA tournament upsets is a challenging but exciting endeavor. A model, Slingshot, uses advanced metrics to identify teams with the statistical profiles of past "Davids" and "Goliaths," incorporating power ratings, cluster analysis, and matchup analysis to project potential upsets.

Top 10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets

Here are some of the most likely first-round upsets identified by Slingshot:

No. 11 San Diego State* vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (43.9% upset chance) *Requires San Diego State to win play-in game.
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU (43.1% upset chance)
No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis (42.2% upset chance)
No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan (37.7% upset chance)
No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri (33.7% upset chance)
No. 11 North Carolina* vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (32% upset chance) *Requires North Carolina to win play-in game.
No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon (31.4% upset chance)
No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson (30.9% upset chance)
No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue (28.4% upset chance)
No. 11 Xavier* vs. No. Sep 16, 2025

Expert Final Four Predictions

ESPN analysts provided their Final Four and national championship picks, offering further insights into potential tournament outcomes.

Regional Favorites

East: Duke was the overwhelming favorite, with 77% of analysts picking them to win the region.
South: A close race between Houston (58%) and Michigan State (35%).
Midwest: Houston was the popular pick, followed by Tennessee.
West: Florida was the most popular pick.

Championship Predictions

The analysts were split between Duke and Florida, with each receiving 22 votes to win the national championship. Houston was the only other team with double-digit votes (10).

Popular Upset Picks in Bracket Challenges

Men's Bracket Challenge Game users are favoring No. 11 Drake, No. 11 North Carolina, No. 12 Colorado State, and No. 11 VCU as potential upset picks. No. 13 High Point, No. 14 Lipscomb, No. 15 Omaha, and No. 16 SIU Edwardsville are also drawing attention as Cinderella candidates.

Seed-Based Upset Trends

No. 11 Seeds: Drake leads the pack as the top upset pick overall.
No. 12 Seeds: Colorado State, UC San Diego, Liberty, and McNeese are popular choices.
No. 13 Seeds: High Point and Yale are ahead of last year's most-picked 13 seed.
No. 14 Seeds:
No. 15 Seeds:
No. 16 Seeds: Historically the least-picked upsets.

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