College Football Week 7 Predictions and Mid-Season Analysis: Upsets, Obstacles, and Playoff Contenders

Week 7 of the 2025 college football season delivered its share of surprises, invalidating preseason polls and highlighting both strengths and weaknesses among the top teams. Several undefeated teams fell, and many programs are now facing critical challenges as they move into the second half of the season. From Ohio State's quest for defensive perfection to Miami's focus on maintaining momentum, and from Indiana's rising confidence to Texas A&M's rigorous road schedule, the landscape of college football is becoming increasingly clear.

Top Teams Face Mid-Season Hurdles

As the midpoint of the 2025 season arrives, even the most dominant unit on the most dominant team is looking for areas to improve. This has largely been a season of imperfections and invalidated predictions. Don't stare directly at the preseason polls or you'll damage your eyes.

Week 7 highlighted some problems, from Oklahoma's offense to Tennessee's third-down defense (and offense) to LSU's general sloppiness to Ole Miss' inability to finish drives. And that's just in the SEC. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore looked shaky in a 10-point loss to Indiana, and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw an ugly pick-six in the victory. Michigan's normally sound defense had no answers for Jayden Maiava, King Miller and USC, which has its own flaws but looked very sharp against the Wolverines.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes: Run Game Woes

Ohio State allowed a whopping 16 points at Illinois, seven more than it had in any other game this season, and the Buckeyes were ticked off about it. "Definitely bothers me," defensive lineman Kayden McDonald said. "If we want to be the best defense in the country, we can't let people score."

The 6-0 Buckeyes have dominated their opponents, outscoring them 221-41, but their run game remains a concern. After losing TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to the NFL from the national championship team, Ohio State averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in their win at Illinois, with only one rush longer than 10 yards. CJ Donaldson reached the end zone twice, and Ohio State's offensive line generated good movement early on, but the explosive runs didn't come.

"We need to go and look to see: Is it a blocking issue? Is there a personnel issue?" coach Ryan Day said. "We've got to look at all those things. But I thought the offensive line was moving people today." The run game hasn't been awful but remains a work in progress.

2. Miami Hurricanes: Maintaining Focus

The Hurricanes have a favorable schedule ahead, with no ranked teams remaining on their regular-season slate. Having just had their final open date of the season this past weekend, Miami will play seven straight games to close out the slate before championship game weekend. The biggest challenge for Miami is maintaining focus and avoiding upsets against unranked opponents. Under Mario Cristobal, Miami has lost eight games as a favorite, including two this past season that cost it a spot in the ACC championship game. Miami is the prohibitive favorite now to get to Charlotte and win the ACC.

3. Indiana Hoosiers: Avoiding Penalties and Looking Ahead

After what was a pretty complete performance at Oregon on both sides of the ball to notch a 30-20 win, Indiana doesn't just look like a team that is College Football Playoff-bound for the second straight season; it looks even better and more confident than last year's squad. With more experience, better talent and Curt Cignetti at the helm, the Hoosiers' biggest obstacle might be themselves. As Cignetti pointed out postgame, penalties (specifically false starts) were a major issue. Outside of that, however, it's Ohio State that is their biggest competition in the Big Ten. They avoid each other in the regular season which could set up a potential matchup in the championship game in Indianapolis.

Regardless, if Indiana makes it to that game, it's a near certainty that it'll be back in the playoff, where the ghosts of what Notre Dame did to the Hoosiers in the first round this past season await.

4. Texas A&M Aggies: A Grueling Road Test

The Aggies are for real, moving to 6-0 for the first time since 2016 and only the second time in the past 30 years with a win over Florida. But now the real fun starts. They'll roll into Fayetteville to face Arkansas for just the second time since 1990, in Bobby Petrino's first home game as the interim coach on a night in which the Hogs are honoring Darren McFadden. They follow that up with trips to LSU and Missouri, and won't return home until Nov. 15. The A&M defense is bringing back old Wrecking Crew feelings, holding three straight SEC opponents to 100 yards or less and dominating on third down, becoming the first major conference program in the past 20 years to hold three straight teams to one or fewer conversions on third down. The old saying is that defense travels. We're about to find out.

5. Ole Miss Rebels: Eliminating Self-Inflicted Mistakes

The Rebels are getting ready to face the most difficult part of their schedule, starting with Saturday's SEC road game at Georgia. They'll play at Oklahoma the week after that, followed by a home game against South Carolina on Nov. 1. If Ole Miss is to survive that stretch, it's going to need to eliminate the self-inflicted mistakes it keeps making. The Rebels are the third-most penalized team in the SEC with 73.8 yards per game. They also rank 14th in the league in turnover margin at minus-4, losing three fumbles and throwing five interceptions. In Saturday's 24-21 win against Washington State, the Rebels were penalized eight times for 99 yards.

6. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Quarterback Health

The Red Raiders continue to show they're dynamic, malleable and can win however they need. This week, they lost starting quarterback Behren Morton to injury and backup Will Hammond struggled through the air, going 7-of-16 for 42 yards with an interception, yet they won 42-17 over Kansas. Hammond added 61 yards and two scores, but the superstar was running back Cameron Dickey, who piled up 263 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 12.5 yards per carry. Tech has won six straight games by 20 or more points, and it has all been seemingly different. But the one constant is that the Red Raiders have fielded perhaps the best defense in school history. The only concern for Tech right now is the health of Morton, who has left three games this season with an injury, though the Red Raiders have a lot of belief in Hammond, who put on a show in relief against Utah. The schedule looks extremely favorable, with the remaining teams having a 19-18 record, and that includes 6-0 BYU.

7. Alabama Crimson Tide: Reviving the Run Game

The Crimson Tide have reeled off five straight wins since losing the opener to Florida State, but they have done it without a strong run game. Alabama has struggled to consistently move the ball on the ground, and losing Jam Miller to a concussion in the fourth quarter of a 27-24 win over Missouri on Saturday is certainly not the news this team needs headed into the Tennessee game this week. Alabama ranks No. 103 in the nation in rush offense and is averaging just 3.89 yards per rush. Against Missouri, Alabama had 43 carries for just 126 yards. Ty Simpson has been carrying this offense, but at some point, Alabama is going to have to run the ball more consistently than it has this season.

8. Georgia Bulldogs: Improving Third-Down Defense

If the Bulldogs are going to stay in the SEC title mix, they're going to have to figure out a way to get opponents off the field on third down. The Bulldogs rank 13th in the league in that area, allowing their opponents to convert 40.2% of the time. By comparison, when Georgia won its second straight CFP national title during the 2022 season, it led the SEC and ranked No. 2 in the FBS at 26.6%. It's the biggest reason why the Bulldogs lost to Alabama 24-21 at home and had to come from behind to survive in their road victories at Tennessee and Auburn. The Crimson Tide converted nine of their 11 third-down plays while building a 24-14 lead in the first half. Auburn had a 75-yard touchdown drive to start the game and controlled the ball for nearly 22 minutes in the first half, converting 8 of 11 third downs along the way. The Bulldogs have made great adjustments at halftime of games, but they need to do better coming out of the gates.

9. Oregon Ducks: Regaining Momentum After Upset

Since 2022, this Ducks team has run on a very particular kind of energy: success at home in front of a frenzied crowd that had helped them win 18 straight games in a row at Autzen Stadium. But after Indiana came into town and outmatched Oregon to the tune of a 30-20 result, Dan Lanning's team will need to reset and find its groove again. The loss does not deter the Ducks' season-long goals, but it does force them to reevaluate some of their weaknesses, including an inability to match the energy of a team that is as good or better than they are (see: not just Indiana but Ohio State in the playoff last year, too). Throughout this dominant stretch, Lanning has been exceptional at continuing to motivate his team to keep its success going. What will his approach be after Oregon just got punched in the mouth?

Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile

10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Offensive Balance

If the concerns surrounding Georgia Tech's close wins to start the season suggested the Yellow Jackets could be susceptible to an upset, it sure didn't seem to be true in Week 7. Georgia Tech jumped out to an early 15-0 lead and never looked back in a 35-20 win over Virginia Tech. Better news, the ground game, which had been dependent on Haynes King's rushing ability, racked up 268 yards, while King proved he can win with his arm too, completing 20 of 24 passes for 213 yards and a score. That type of offensive balance will be the key to the Jackets staying undefeated moving forward.

11. Tennessee Volunteers: Defensive Improvements Needed

Tennessee allowed 16.1 points per game and 4.6 yards per play during last year's College Football Playoff run. This year, the Volunteers are allowing 29.3 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. On Saturday in Knoxville, they needed a 146-yard rushing day from DeSean Bishop and a 109-yard receiving day from Braylon Staley to survive a track meet with Arkansas, 34-31. The win moved the Volunteers to 5-1, and as long as quarterback Joey Aguilar and company can keep the points and yards flowing, they could be fine. But they've allowed 24, 26, 31 and 34 points in four of their wins (and 44 in their loss). Trying to win track meet after track meet is a tough way to remain in the playoff hunt.

12. LSU Tigers: Supporting the Quarterback

It's safe to say that LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn't gotten as much help as he needs this season. The run game has stunk, and he has had to throw short and quick to assure pressure doesn't become an issue. That remains an issue, but there were signs of hope in Saturday's 20-10 win over South Carolina. Thanks in part to a 56-yard burst from Ju'Juan Johnson, LSU rushed for 166 yards, and Nussmeier was able to complete 20 of 33 passes for 254 yards with no sacks. He did throw two interceptions, and LSU turned the ball over twice in the red zone, which allowed the Gamecocks to hang around. But the defense was excellent once again, and the problematic offense appeared to make progress.

13. Oklahoma Sooners: Establishing a Run Game

The Sooners' smooth start to the 2025 season struck a pothole in a 23-6 loss to Red River rivals Texas at the Cotton Bowl in Week 7. Away from the struggles of quarterback John Mateer in his return from a hand injury and an uncharacteristically leaky defense, Oklahoma's 106th-ranked run game was the thorn in the Sooners' side for yet another week, and it remains the biggest threat to the program's playoff aspirations in 2025. Oklahoma gained just 48 yards from 30 attempts (1.6 yards per carry) on Saturday, cycling between running backs Tory Blaylock, Xavier Robinson and Jaydn Ott to no avail. Without a meaningful run game, the Sooners' offense has become a worryingly one-dimensional problem not even Mateer's typically outstanding playmaking can overcome. It's an issue that will surely trip Oklahoma up across the back half of the regular season, just as it did against Texas.

14. BYU Cougars: Quarterback Reliance on Legs

The Cougars trailed by 10 at Arizona with less than five minutes to play before finding a way to send the game to overtime, where they won, 33-27. The win kept their undefeated season alive ahead of this week's Holy War game against Utah. Now comes the hard part. BYU's schedule is much more difficult in the second half of the season. It got quarterback Bear Bachmeier the experience he needed but it's concerning how much the Cougars relied on his legs against Arizona (22 carries, 89 yards). They need to be able to throw it more effectively for the winning streak to continue.

15. Missouri Tigers: Passing Game Inconsistencies

Mizzou fought hard, tackled well and made life as difficult as possible for Alabama in Columbia on Saturday, but Eli Drinkwitz's Tigers still fell 27-24 because, well, they couldn't pass. Beau Pribula went just 16-for-28 passing for 167 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions; even with Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts combining to average 6.0 yards per carry. After an early touchdown, the Tigers scored just 10 points over a 55-minute period before nearly pulling off a late comeback. With plenty of other excellent defenses coming up on the schedule -- including Auburn's next week -- the Tigers can't afford to become one-dimensional if they want to remain in the playoff race.

16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Tightrope Walk to the Playoff

Notre Dame dominated NC State, 36-7, behind another stellar performance from QB CJ Carr. More impressively is that a defense, lambasted after an 0-2 start for struggles, particularly in the secondary, dominated, picking off CJ Bailey three times in the win. The ugly start to the season seems like it's fully in the rearview mirror, but those two early losses mean Notre Dame will continue to walk a tightrope in hopes of a playoff berth, and Week 8 could be the moment the Irish tumble to the ground. USC awaits after a big win over Michigan, with a date in South Bend likely to be the defining moment of Notre Dame's season.

17. USC Trojans: Overcoming Past Losses and a Difficult Schedule

After an impressive 31-13 win over No. 15 Michigan Saturday, the Trojans' biggest obstacle may be something that they can't go back and change: their loss to Illinois two weeks ago in a game that was seemingly in their hands before they let it slip away. The reason that loss may linger for Lincoln Riley's team is the fact that the rest of its schedule is daunting to say the least. USC heads to Notre Dame next before heading to face Nebraska in another tough road environment, then has to deal with pesky teams like Northwestern and Iowa at home. The finishing stretch features a dangerous road trip to play Oregon before getting a suddenly-feisty UCLA team at home. Every game in that stretch is its own tricky obstacle and the Trojans have yet to prove they can play consistent eli… play

Week 7: Key Results and Takeaways

Week 7 of the college football season saw three more teams fall from the ranks of the undefeated. Oregon lost to Indiana, Oklahoma lost to Texas, and Missouri fell at home to Alabama.

The Hoosiers reached the College Football Playoff in 2024, but not without questions after losing their only game against a ranked opponent last season. IU silenced some critics by beating the Ducks in Eugene. The Hoosiers' defense held the Ducks to just 267 total yards and forced two turnovers.

The Hoosiers join Ohio State as the only remaining undefeated Big Ten teams. The Buckeyes' lone blip against Illinois was allowing 16 points when they hadn't given up more than nine this season. In the 34-16 win, Ohio State QB Julian Sayin was 19-of-27 for 166 yards and 2 scores.

The SEC also has just two unbeaten teams remaining. Texas took care of business at home, beating Florida 34-17. Ole Miss, which entered the week as the highest-ranked SEC team, struggled against Washington. QB Trinidad Chambliss accounted for three scores, and the Rebels' defense held up just well enough. Ole Miss will get tougher tests over the next two weeks with trips to face Georgia and OU.

Expert College Football Playoff Picks

Here are our experts' top 12 College Football Playoff picks:

Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Indiana 4. Texas A&M 5. Texas Tech 6. Ole Miss 7. Alabama 8. Georgia Tech 9. Georgia 10. USC 11. Oregon 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Indiana 3. Miami 4. Texas A&M 5. Texas Tech 6. Ole Miss 7. Alabama 8. Oregon 9. Georgia Tech 10. Georgia 11. LSU 12. Memphis
Bill Connelly: 1. Ohio State 2. Indiana 3. Miami 4. Texas Tech 5. Texas A&M 6. Ole Miss 7. Georgia Tech 8. Alabama 9. Memphis 10. Georgia 11. USC 12. LSU
David Hale: 1. Miami 2. Indiana 3. Ohio State 4. Texas A&M 5. Alabama 6. Ole Miss 7. Texas Tech 8. Georgia 9. Georgia Tech 10. Tennessee 11. Oregon 12. South Florida
Eli Lederman: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Indiana 4. Texas A&M 5. Ole Miss 6. Oregon 7. Alabama 8. Texas Tech 9. Tennessee 10. Georgia Tech 11. Missouri 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Indiana 4. Texas Tech 5. Texas A&M 6. Ole Miss 7. Alabama 8. Oregon 9. Georgia 10. Georgia Tech 11. USC 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Indiana 4. Texas A&M 5. Texas Tech 6. Alabama 7. Ole Miss 8. Oregon 9. Georgia Tech 10. Georgia 11. Notre Dame 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Indiana 4. Texas A&M 5. Ole Miss 6. Texas Tech 7. Alabama 8. Georgia 9. Oregon 10. Georgia Tech 11. LSU 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Indiana 3. Miami 4. Alabama 5. Texas A&M 6. Ole Miss 7. Texas Tech 8. Georgia 9. Georgia Tech 10. Oregon 11. LSU 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Indiana 3. Miami 4. Texas A&M 5. Texas Tech 6. Alabama 7. Ole Miss 8. Georgia Tech 9. Oregon 10. Georgia 11. USC 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Indiana 3. Miami 4. Texas A&M 5. Texas Tech 6. Ole Miss 7. Alabama 8. Oregon 9. Georgia Tech 10. Georgia 11. LSU 12.

Predictions and Betting Insights

On paper, the Hoosiers look worthy of their No. No. âWeâre built for big moments,â Moore said this week. âCoach Lanning this week is kind of speaking about Secretariat. â¦ Horses, they keep their blinders on, keeping tunnel vision, focused, within their lane, within themselves. I feel like this team does a great job not listening to the outside noise. We run our own race. Oregon (-7.5) can handle the high stakes. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The Big Tenâs commercial reach begins at the Space Needle and ends at the Statue of Liberty. The Buckeyes wonât have trouble scoring against a team thatâs allowed an average of more than 40 points in its past three games. Kalen DeBoer of Alabama. You wonât find a more fraudulent 5-0 record than the Tigers have earned against the 109th-ranked schedule. Stay away if John Mateer doesnât suit up. Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) throws during the first half against the Auburn Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. The Hokies held South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers to 1.9 yards per carry. Diego Pavia was kept in check for the majority of Vanderbiltâs win. N.C. Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier gestures before a game against the Texas Longhorns at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Billy Napier bought himself at least another week with the Gators win over Texas, but the 108,000 fans at Kyle Field will help make that victory a distant memory. The Big 12 doesnât look wide open anymore. The Tigers, who could have easily won at Oklahoma and at Texas A&M, have the advantage of an extra weekâs rest/prep, plus a prime-time kickoff in one of the sportâs best environments. Jackson Arnoldâs struggles came against two of the top three pass-rushing units in the country. Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) passes in the second half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Stadium. The 2,200-mile trip is a concern (see: Penn State-UCLA), but the Coliseum wonât be a problem for the visitors who left Nebraskaâs sold-out stadium with a win. The Tigers have averaged fewer than 20 points per game against FBS opponents (including Louisiana Tech), with Garrett Nussmeier throwing for four touchdowns and three interceptions. Betting on College Football? Kyle Whittinghamâs track record isnât enough anymore. It has been two years since the Utes notched a noteworthy victory, while the reigning Big 12 champs have won meaningful bouts in back-to-back games (Baylor, TCU). Utahâs 13th-ranked run game was limited to 3.3 yards per carry against Texas Techâs top five run defense (2.4 yards per rush).

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