Unearthing College Football's Hidden Gems: The Most Underrated NCAA Teams

Every year, the Associated Press (AP) releases its preseason Top 25 poll, igniting debates and setting expectations for the college football season. While these polls generate excitement, they can also create biases that influence rankings and College Football Playoff appearances throughout the year. But beyond the teams that enjoy consistent media attention and high rankings, there are always a few hidden gems that exceed expectations and deliver impressive performances. Identifying these underrated teams can be a rewarding exercise, both for fans and those interested in sports betting.

The Perils of Preseason Polls

Preseason polls often carry too much weight, potentially shaping perceptions and influencing rankings even when on-field performance tells a different story. As one might expect, betting markets are rarely incorrect. Data suggests that preseason polls should be taken with a grain of salt, perhaps even disregarded entirely, due to their potential impact on subsequent rankings and College Football Playoff selections. Diehard fans may enjoy the preseason debates, but it's crucial to recognize that these polls are not always accurate predictors of success.

Identifying Underrated Teams: A Data-Driven Approach

To identify consistently underrated teams, a data model can be constructed that compares preseason rank versus final AP rank for each team since 2020. Additional weight can be assigned to teams that are consistently over- or under-ranked to prevent single-season anomalies from skewing the results.

Examples of Underrated Teams

Several teams consistently outperform their preseason expectations. SMU and Tulane, both former American Conference standouts, exemplify this trend. Their success earned SMU an invitation to the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC).

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is perennially undervalued, and 2024 is no different. The Cowboys have a great offense with the nation's leading rusher, Ollie Gordon II, seven offensive linemen who made multiple starts last season, quarterback Alan Bowman, and big-play linebackers Collin Oliver and Nickolas Martin.

Utah

Utah often flies under the radar, especially if quarterback Cam Rising is healthy. Rising gives Utah a championship-level quarterback and their offense also returns standout tight end Brant Kuithe. Utah has upgraded the wide receiver spot through transfers, and returns most of its defensive front seven.

NC State

NC State is often overlooked, but the Wolfpack have the potential for a breakthrough season. With the additions of transfers quarterback Grayson McCall, tight end Justin Joly, running back Jordan Waters, receiver Noah Rogers and offensive lineman Zeke Correll, the offense is loaded with talent.

Arizona

Arizona might surprise some, as they return quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. If Brennan can get the Wildcats' defense to not be somnambulant this season, there's a great chance their offense is good enough to carry them into being a great team.

Kansas State

Kansas State is perennially undervalued and underrated. The Wildcats boast one of the more intriguing backfields in the country with ascending quarterback Avery Johnson paired with returning 1,000-yard rusher DJ Giddens and Colorado running back transfer Dylan Edwards.

West Virginia

West Virginia is an underrated team that could surprise in 2024. Quarterback Garrett Greene made huge strides, and Jahiem White was a revelation as a freshman, averaging close to 8 yards per carry.

Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile

Indiana

Indiana was 5-0 and ranked 8th, but they could have been ranked even higher. They pasted a then-top-10 Illinois team 63-10. A 20-15 win at Iowa may not move the needle, but consider this -- since the start of the 2022 season, Iowa has only allowed one visiting team to score more than three touchdowns at Kinnick Stadium.

Mississippi State

Mississippi State is a surprising 4-1 team. Second-year head coach Jeff Lebby has the Bulldogs on the rise and an overtime loss vs. No. 15 Tennessee away from being a stunning 5-0. Mississippi State beat No. 25 Arizona State in Week 1 and has won each of its other three games by at least 17 points.

Virginia

Virginia is back in the AP top 25 for the first time since 2019. The Cavaliers have scored at least 46 points in all four of their wins, including one-sided blowouts of Coastal Carolina (48-7), William & Mary (55-16) and Stanford (48-20).

Memphis

Memphis appears to be the best Group of Five team in the country, but remains unranked after a 5-0 start that includes a win over SEC foe Arkansas and four blowout wins over Chattanooga, Georgia State, Troy, and Florida Atlantic by an average margin of 26.75 points.

Teams That Defy Expectations

Some teams defy expectations, either positively or negatively. Texas A&M, for instance, often embodies the "Aggie Rollercoaster," with preseason hype failing to translate into consistent success. Wisconsin, USC, and Miami also experience disappointment, while Nebraska and Texas have struggled to live up to their reputations, although Texas has recently improved.

The Allure of Public Teams

Interestingly, some highly popular teams like Alabama, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Penn State can be surprisingly underrated. These teams attract significant betting volume, yet they may still exceed expectations, demonstrating that popularity doesn't always equate to accurate perception.

Betting on the Underdog: A Risky Proposition

It's important to note that sports betting, including college football, is inherently risky. Most bettors end up as net losers, and positive returns on investment (ROI) are often the result of random chance rather than skill. While identifying underrated teams can be tempting for bettors, it's crucial to approach betting responsibly and seek professional help if gambling becomes a problem.

FPI Undervaluation

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) can also undervalue teams. Some examples of this are:

Oklahoma State: Chris Low believes Oklahoma State at No. 26 is too low.
Utah: Adam Rittenberg thinks Utah seems low at 27.
NC State: David Hale believes NC State is finally going to have its breakthrough season, but the FPI has them at No. 28.
Arizona: Paolo Uggetti feels similar about Arizona at 24.
Kansas State: Jake Trotter thinks Kansas State is perennially undervalued and underrated.

tags: #underrated #ncaa #football #teams