Universal Music Group Stock Analysis: An In-Depth Examination

Universal Music Group N.V. (UNVGY), traded on the OTCMKTS, is a global music entertainment company with a significant presence in the industry. As of February 26, 2026, the stock price stands at $11.14, reflecting a 2.30% increase. This article delves into a comprehensive analysis of UNVGY, covering its valuation, financial health, market performance, and future outlook.

Company Overview

Universal Music Group N.V. operates as a music company worldwide. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands. Universal Music is traded on OTC Exchange in the United States. The company has 1.81 B outstanding shares.

Valuation Metrics

Market Capitalization

As of February 26, 2026, Universal Music Group has a market capitalization of $40.71 billion. Market capitalization, also called net worth, is the total value of all of a company's outstanding shares. calculated by multiplying the stock price by the number of shares outstanding. The formula is: Market Cap = Stock Price * Shares Outstanding. However, it's worth noting that the market cap has decreased by -26.07% in one year. Since September 21, 2021, Universal Music Group's market cap has decreased from 53.33B to 40.71B, a decrease of -23.66%. That is a compound annual growth rate of -5.91%.

Enterprise Value

The enterprise value, a measure of the company's total value, is $44.53 billion.

Ratios

The trailing PE ratio is 13.31 and the forward PE ratio is 17.41. Other valuation ratios include a PS Ratio of 2.84 and a PB Ratio of 7.06. The P/TBV Ratio is 12.00, P/FCF Ratio is 20.59, and P/OCF Ratio is 19.59. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 16.72, with an EV/FCF ratio of 22.52. Additional ratios include EV / Earnings of 14.56, EV / Sales of 3.10 and EV / EBIT of 18.20.

Share Statistics and Ownership

Universal Music Group shows a total of 1.81 Billion outstanding shares. Universal Music Group maintains significant amount of outstanding shares owned by insiders. About 48.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. An insider is usually defined as a CEO, other corporate executive, director, or institutional investor who own at least 10% of the company's outstanding shares. The company has 1.81 B outstanding shares.

The percentage of shares owned by insiders is 18.77%, while institutions own 37.06%. The float is 1.03B. Shares Change (YoY) -0.91% and Shares Change (QoQ) +1.14%.

Financial Health

Liquidity and Solvency

The company has a current ratio of 0.63 and a quick ratio of 0.43. The Debt / Equity ratio is 0.76.

Universal Music Group has accumulated 2.28 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.94, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Universal Music Group has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Universal Music until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Universal Music's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Universal Music Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Universal to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Universal Music's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.

Profitability

Return on equity (ROE) is 62.31%, return on assets (ROA) is 7.74%, and return on invested capital (ROIC) is 18.75%. Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is 18.61%.

The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 0.07 %, which maeans that even a very small decline in it revenue will erase profits resulting in a net loss. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 0.16 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of $0.16.

Efficiency

Asset Turnover is 0.73, and Inventory Turnover is 27.30. Revenue Per Employee is 1.49M, and Profits Per Employee are 317,365.

Debt and Coverage

The company has 616.56 million in cash and 4.39 billion in debt, with a net cash position of -3.77 billion. Debt / EBITDA is 1.66, Debt / FCF is 2.22, and Interest Coverage is 15.81.

Income Statement Analysis

Revenue and Profitability

In the last 12 months, UNVGY had revenue of 14.31 billion and earned 3.06 billion in profits. Earnings per share was 1.66. Universal Music Group reported another underwhelming quarter, with no acceleration in revenue growth despite recent attempts at strategic changes.

Margins

Gross margin is 42.78%, with operating and profit margins of 16.99% and 21.36%. EBITDA Margin is 17.85%, EBIT Margin is 16.99%, and FCF Margin is 13.82%.

Cash Flow Analysis

In the last 12 months, operating cash flow was 2.08 billion and capital expenditures -101.00 million, giving a free cash flow of 1.98 billion.

Dividends and Yields

This stock pays an annual dividend of 0.18, which amounts to a dividend yield of 1.65%. Dividend per Share is 0.18, Dividend Growth (YoY) is 1.19%, and Years of Dividend Growth is 4. Payout Ratio is 35.94%, Buyback Yield is 0.91%, and Shareholder Yield is 2.56%. Earnings Yield is 7.51%, and FCF Yield is 4.86%. Universal Music Group last dividend was issued on the 5th of October 2022.

Stock Performance

Price Change

The stock price has decreased by -24.03% in the last 52 weeks.

Volatility

The beta is 0.77, so UNVGY's price volatility has been lower than the market average.

Moving Averages and RSI

The 50-Day Moving Average is 12.26, the 200-Day Moving Average is 13.86, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 36.99.

Risk Assessment

Financial Distress

Universal Music has less than a 9 % chance of experiencing financial distress in the next few years, but has generated negative returns over the last 90 days.

Altman Z-Score

UNVGY has an Altman Z-Score of 0.73. A Z-score under 3 suggests an increased risk of bankruptcy.

Piotroski F-Score

The Piotroski F-Score is 4.

Universal Music Group Price Movement Analysis

Universal Music Group Tanh Of Price Series is a hyperbolic price transformation function.Universal Music intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of Universal Music pink sheet daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

Technical Analysis

As of the 26th of February, Universal Music has the Variance of 3.2, risk adjusted performance of (0.11), and Coefficient Of Variation of (683.39). In relation to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model makes it possible for you to check existing technical drivers of Universal Music Group, as well as the relationship between them. Please validate Universal Music Group variance and value at risk to decide if Universal Music is priced more or less accurately, providing market reflects its prevalent price of 22.0 per share. Given that Universal Music Group has information ratio of (0.21), we advise you to double-check Universal Music Group's current market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Leading position in the music industry, diverse revenue streams (recorded music, publishing, merchandising), strong catalog of artists and songs.
Weaknesses: Dependence on streaming platforms, vulnerability to piracy, negative working capital.
Opportunities: Growth in emerging markets, expansion into new digital formats, strategic acquisitions.
Threats: Changing consumer preferences, increasing competition, unfavorable revenue-sharing agreements with streaming platforms.

Universal Music Thematic Classifications

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Investment Alerts

Universal Music generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days.

Peer Comparison

Universal Music is the largest of the three major record companies. Recorded music accounts for most of the firmâs revenue, with the segment housing more than a dozen record labels, including notable names like Interscope, Capital Music, Motown Records, and Def Jam. Some of the most successful current artists signed to record deals with Universal include Taylor Swift, Drake, The Weeknd, and Morgan Wallen. Most of Universalâs remaining revenue comes from its publishing segment, which generates revenue for songwriters and composers, including some of Universalâs recording artists as well as songwriters and composers who do not record music themselves or are attached to other labels. Universalâs publishing group has nearly 4.5 million owned or administered titles in its catalog.

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