Understanding National Merit Scholarship Announcement Dates and Program Dynamics
The National Merit Scholarship Program is a highly esteemed academic competition in the United States that recognizes and honors academically talented high school students. Each year, approximately 17,000 students are named National Merit Semifinalists based on their junior year PSAT scores. These Semifinalists then have the opportunity to continue in the competition to become Finalists and potentially receive scholarships. An additional 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students for scoring in the top 3% of all test takers.
Key Dates and Deadlines
Understanding the timeline of the National Merit Scholarship Program is crucial for students and their families. Here's a breakdown of the key dates:
- December 5 (Priority Deadline): First-time freshmen recognized as National Merit Finalists who are applying to certain universities may need to submit all application materials by this deadline to ensure consideration for the National Merit Scholarship at that university. To be considered for the National Merit Scholarship at UA, students must be recognized by the National Merit Scholarship Corporation.
- End of April (Unofficial Commended Cutoff): The Commended cutoff score typically becomes unofficially known around this time.
- End of August (Semifinalist Lists Distributed): High schools receive the lists of Semifinalists towards the end of August. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification.
- Mid-September (Press Embargo Ends): Schools are requested by NMSC not to publicly share the results until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but they are allowed to notify students privately prior to this date.
- April 1 (Alternate Entry Deadline): Students who were unable to take the PSAT due to illness or other circumstances can apply for the scholarship program via Alternate Entry using an SAT score. The deadline for application is generally April 1 after the PSAT, although students can use SAT scores through the June test date.
National Merit Semifinalist Selection Index
The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading and Writing (RW) score, adding the Math score, and dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228.
- Selection Index Formula: (2 x RW score + Math score) / 10
- Maximum Selection Index: 228
Factors Influencing Cutoff Scores
Several factors can influence the cutoff scores for Semifinalist status:
- State Allocation: Semifinalists are allocated to each state based on its proportion of high school graduates. This means that qualifying scores vary from state to state.
- Target Number of Semifinalists: NMSC sets a target number of Semifinalists for each state. The Selection Index that comes closest to matching this target becomes the cutoff.
- Test Construction and Scaling: The Selection Index cutoffs are influenced by the design and scaling of the PSAT.
- PSAT Scoring Anomalies: Over the last two decades, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), 2019 (Class of 2021), and 2024 (Class of 2026) stand out as problematic. In those years, almost every state saw a change in cutoffs, and the direction and size of the change point to non-parallel forms (wind!).
PSAT Scoring and the Selection Index
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. This means that students across the country face varying qualifying scores for Semifinalist status (the Commended level is set nationally).
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Understanding PSAT Score Anomalies
Analyzing the PSAT/NMSQT is about more than just explaining National Merit cutoffs. The PSAT also provides a unique window into the SAT program. National Merit results offer comparable year-over-year data that are more granular than what College Board provides for the SAT. The scoring anomalies we saw on the October 2024 PSAT are also likely occurring on the SAT; they’re just better disguised on the three-letter exam. Based on our historical review, scoring outliers crop up every 3 to 4 years with the PSAT.
State-by-State Cutoff Variations
The cutoffs for the Class of 2026 range from 210 in New Mexico, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming to 225 in New Jersey and Massachusetts. If California is allocated 2,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. This year, California’s 224 included 2,172 students. A cutoff of 225 would have produced too few Semifinalists. State cutoffs always have some degree of fluctuation, especially in smaller states. The size and consistency of this year’s movements set them apart, and large states provide the best measuring stick.
The Impact of Digital Testing on PSAT Scores
On the digital PSAT, not all students answer the same questions. There is a pool of potential items. Nor is scaling done by a simple tally of right/wrong answers. As with the digital SAT, a specialized form of scoring called 3-parameter Item Response Theory (IRT) is used on the PSAT. IRT is a form of pattern scoring, where a student’s score is determined by which specific questions are answered correctly or incorrectly. If the parameters for questions were inaccurate and those questions only went to certain students, then the bias in scores may not have been uniform. A swirling wind could have helped some students and not others.
The Role of Alternate Entry
Each year, some students are unable to take the PSAT because of illness or other extenuating circumstances. These students can apply to enter the scholarship program via Alternate Entry using an SAT score. The deadline for application is generally April 1 after the PSAT, although students can use SAT scores through the June test date. In the past, NMSC has only used PSAT scores to calculate cutoffs (with an exception made during the COVID-related cancellations in 2020). Because students can take the SAT on multiple dates, their scores skew higher than PSAT scores. If NMSC were to include them in the cutoff calculations, it would likely lead to cutoff inflation.
The Class of 2026 PSAT Scores
The recently confirmed cutoffs reveal that the Class of 2026 had the highest Semifinalist scores ever on the PSAT. Of the 12 largest states, 8 set new records and the other 4 tied their highest historical marks. The nearly universal increase in Selection Index cutoffs is most likely attributable to a flaw in scaling or test construction that produced higher scores on both Reading & Writing and Math. The cutoffs in the largest 12 states went up either 2 points or 3 points.
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Factors Not Likely Contributing to Increased PSAT Scores
There are other theories as to why PSAT scores increased. For example, is the increase in PSAT scores due to better preparation? It is unlikely. Desmos, the powerful online calculator available for the PSAT and SAT, was available in 2023, as well. Students may have become more adept with Desmos, but that doesn’t explain why we also saw an increase in Reading & Writing scores. The number of students taking the PSAT can change from year-to-year. The score level of those students can also change. For example, if a state begins requiring all students to take the PSAT, the average score will go down, while the number of high scorers may move up (in previous years, we saw this in Illinois and Michigan). This is a poor fit for what we saw with the PSAT. Scores went up across virtually all states.
PSAT Design
The RW and Math PSAT each have two stages. A student receives an initial set of questions. Based on their performance on that first stage, the student receives a set of easier or harder problems in stage 2. An adaptive test can more quickly narrow down a student’s score, but there is always the chance of what is known as routing error. In other words, a student with an ultimate score of 640 probably should have been routed to the harder stage 2 problems rather than the easier ones. There may be less accuracy had the student been routed to the easier set of questions. However, routing error should be neutral for the population as a whole. Further, College Board research maintains that routing error has a minimal impact on scores.
Geographical Considerations for Cutoff Scores
NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. NMSC sets a target number of Semifinalists for a state. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Students abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). Territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region.
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