Navigating the College Admissions Landscape: Predictions and Trends for the Class of 2028

The journey to higher education is a significant milestone, and understanding the evolving landscape of college admissions is crucial for prospective students. As members of the class of 2028 began receiving their acceptance and rejection letters, it became evident that the admissions process remains highly competitive. This article delves into the trends and predictions surrounding college acceptance rates, offering insights for students and families navigating this complex terrain.

The Current Admissions Climate

The recent admissions cycle has been marked by several noteworthy trends. Acceptance rates at highly selective institutions continued their plunge into the low single digits, with a few notable exceptions. According to Common App data, the number of applicants increased by nearly 6 percent over last year. At some colleges, applications appeared to rise in direct response to affordability initiatives. Last summer Duke University announced it would offer free tuition for North and South Carolina-based applicants from families making less than $150,000 a year; this cycle Duke received 4,700 more applicants than last year, 1,250 of which were from North or South Carolina. Admission to highly selective institutions became even more competitive this cycle, as it has for the past decade. Yale University received a record 57,465 applications, for instance-dwarfing its previous record of 52,250 by nearly 10 percent-and had an acceptance rate of 3.7 percent, its lowest ever, down from 4.5 percent last year. Harvard’s acceptance rate, however, rose this year, from 3.34 to 3.59 percent, its first increase since 2020; at the same time, applications to the university fell by over 5 percent from last year. Many public institutions admitted a record low share of applicants. Some private universities are also becoming more competitive. Northeastern University received over 90,000 applications, a nearly 30 percent surge over the roughly 62,000 it received in 2019.

Factors Influencing Acceptance Rates

Several factors contribute to the fluctuating acceptance rates at colleges and universities.

Increased Application Numbers: The accessibility of online applications and the desire for students to explore multiple options have led to a surge in application numbers. Schools like Bowdoin College (14,045), Cornell University (72,519), New York University (120,633), and the University of Michigan (~109,000) all reported their largest applicant pools ever, with some schools like Duke seeing record-high numbers of students applying Early Decision or Early Action. With large applicant pools, it is likely we will see admission rates at these schools remain low or even decrease. This also might lead to more waitlist decisions, as colleges continue to try to manage their yields.
Affordability Initiatives: Colleges are increasingly implementing initiatives to make education more affordable, such as offering free tuition to students from lower-income families. These initiatives can lead to a direct increase in applications, as seen with Duke University's free tuition program for North and South Carolina residents.
Marketing and Reputation: Some institutions have successfully distinguished themselves through strategic marketing campaigns and by aligning their programs with student interests. This can lead to increased applications and lower acceptance rates. “There are some institutions that haven’t historically been at the top of the name-recognition list, but that have done a great job over the last 10 years distinguishing themselves from their peers,” he said, “That’s because of marketing campaigns, number one, but number two, and more importantly, it’s because they’ve listened to what the students want from their programming.
Global Demand: With COVID-19 ending, there are fewer VISA and travel restrictions so there is pent-up demand from International applicants from all over the world wanting to attend top American universities.
Diversity, Equity, Inclusions, Access (DEIA) initiatives: DEIA initiatives are super strong at all T100 colleges so they want to accept more marginalized low-income and first-generation students.

The Impact of the FAFSA Debacle

The rollout of the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) has been marred by chaos and frustration, leading to a nearly 30 percent decline in completion of the form this year. Advocates fear this could result in a marked drop in college-going rates for low-income and first-generation students who rely on federal aid. “The FAFSA debacle is a big question mark hanging over this year, and it will be really disruptive for regional public universities in particular, those that serve and depend on lower-income populations,” he said.

The Role of Standardized Testing

Students navigating the college admissions process continue to experience unique challenges and changes, including the announcement of an entirely digital SAT, evolving standardized testing policies, increasing application numbers, and each student applying to more colleges on average. Christiansen said around half of the RD pool - and the overall applicant pool - submitted test scores, similar to previous years. This pattern has remained consistent over the past few years. The median ranges of SAT and ACT scores were slightly higher among admitted RD students than admitted ED students. “It could be one student who flips it [the median range] over,” Christiansen said.

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The Supreme Court and Affirmative Action

The Supreme Court’s outlawing of race-based affirmative action in college admissions has added another layer of complexity to the admissions process. Before race-based affirmative action was outlawed, MOSAIC Weekend was held earlier in the year, typically in mid-March.

Vanderbilt University: A Case Study

Vanderbilt University offers a specific example of the trends in college admissions. A record-low 3.7% - 1,512 - of Vanderbilt regular decision applicants were admitted on March 27, adding to the 889 students admitted via early decision. Across all admission cycles, 5.1% of applicants have been admitted so far. “Every year, as we continue to be a little more selective because of the yield rate,…the Vanderbilt degree continu[es] to become worth more and more in the marketplace. That’s good for people looking for jobs and going to [graduate] school,” Christiansen said. The increasing yield rate also has affected the number of students admitted from the waitlist. While waitlist data will not be available until the fall for the Class of 2028, 81 fewer students were admitted from the waitlist to the Class of 2027 compared to the Class of 2026. Christiansen said approximately 8-10% of the Class of 2028 will come from the waitlist as in previous years. Similarly, Christiansen said 10% of the Class of 2028 will be made up of deferred students. The number of deferred students has increased to 600 since it began with the Class of 2026. Christiansen declined to disclose the waitlist acceptance rate for the Class of 2027 and the number of students waitlisted for the Class of 2028. The university received 216 more ED applications and 165 fewer RD applications to the Class of 2028 versus the Class of 2027. As of Fall 2023, 16.6% of undergraduates identified as first-generation college students. Christiansen serves as the co-chair of the national Small Town And Rural Student (STARS) Network, which was established in April 2023 with a $2 million grant aimed at reaching and supporting students from such communities. Vanderbilt also houses a STARS undergraduate student organization to provide community and resources for students from small towns and rural areas. Admitted students have until May 1 to officially commit to Vanderbilt.

The Importance of a Strong "Narrative Runway"

The applicant pool is getting more and more competitive putting a stranglehold on your average Valdictorian who used to be shoo-in on paper just 5-10 years ago. Now that we have 3 big cycles of Pandemic College Admissions data to digest, most people in the college admissions business know what counts and doesn't count. And rather than it getting more simplified, it's getting more complicated. What is clear is that having great stats alone like grades, course rigor, and test scores is not enough to get into a great college. You need killer essays, amazing ECs, glowing recommendations, inspiring add'l portfolios, and evidence of intellectual vitality or proof you have an innate love of learning. Think of your "narrative runway" as every data point you include on your college applications between 9th-12th grade. The problem 90% of applicants face is that they didn't know until it's too late that they have to express some talent, skill, or defining moment in their life that makes them unique and special. Applicants who attend highly endowed private day and boarding schools have a huge edge over almost everyone else in the pool by a factor of somewhere between 15-30 to 1. And that's because these students have been working on their "narrative runway" from the time they started pre-school. For 14 years, their parents, teachers, tutor, instructors, coaches, and consultants, have been strategizing every waking moment of their kids' life so that by the time they get accepted into a Spence, Dalton, Choate, Exeter, Deerfield, they ARE already the TOP 10% of the 8th-grade pool. And what these schools do for 4 years is to help them create a custom "narrative runway" that makes sure they have a great combination of volunteerism, activism, athleticism, talents, expository and creative writing ability, and the confidence to use their own voice when defending their narrative.

Strategies for Prospective Students

In this increasingly competitive landscape, it's essential for students to adopt effective strategies to enhance their chances of admission.

Develop a Unique Narrative: Focus on showcasing your unique talents, skills, and experiences through your essays, extracurricular activities, and recommendations.
Cultivate Intellectual Vitality: Demonstrate a genuine love of learning and intellectual curiosity through independent projects, research, or participation in academic competitions.
Build Strong Relationships: Nurture relationships with teachers and mentors who can provide glowing recommendations that highlight your strengths and potential.
Craft Compelling Essays: Use your essays to tell your story in an authentic and engaging way, showcasing your personality, values, and aspirations.
Consider Early Decision/Early Action: Be aware that EA/ED tremendously favors recruited athletes, legacies, development candidates (super rich donors), VIP applicants, and children of faculty or staff. Top colleges typically fill between 40-60% of their admissions seats with EA/ED and unfortunately, hooked applicants account for about 2/3rd of the seats given.
Create a Balanced College List: Include a mix of safety, target, and reach schools to ensure you have options that align with your academic profile and interests. These days you need a Plan B, Plan C, and Plan D. Shot-gunning all the T30 schools is not a good plan because they all have acceptance rates between 3-10%. That's like rolling a 10-sided to 33-sided dice 30 times hoping you will get into one of them. Those odds are terrible and more likely than not, unless you have a high-quality "narrative runway" you will be rejected by most or all of them. So whatever your college list looks like, add a couple of "sure things" so you won't be gutted because the Class of 2028 is going to be more brutal than ever.
Don't Rely Solely on Rankings: Rankings only factor in a little bit in an applicant's decision to apply or not. Top Ivys have been around for 200-400 years so their brands have a lot of history and have been battle-tested in the public eye for a very long time.

The Reality of College Admissions

Getting into some of these colleges is a "rigged" system and people are figuring out how to move on with their lives in a positive way that is an excellent example for others. What all colleges do not share openly is what they are really looking for in a college applicant. Why? Because it's not in their best interest. What is in their best interest is to be kind to everyone, be positive to everyone, and encourage as many people to apply as possible. No college is going to give you the inside scoop on what the real institutional criteria is for each incoming class and share that kind of transparency with the public. College admissions are like applying to a 3-Ring Circus. If the Circus needs 10 strong men, 30 acrobats, and 15 trapeze performers and you are Clown, you are out of luck. Maybe Brown or Yale need more Clowns this year.

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Looking Ahead: Predictions for the Class of 2028

Based on the current trends, here are some predictions for the class of 2028:

Continued Competitiveness: Expect acceptance rates at top colleges and universities to remain highly competitive, with application numbers continuing to rise.
Increased Emphasis on Demonstrated Interest: Colleges will likely place greater emphasis on demonstrated interest, as they seek students who are genuinely enthusiastic about attending their institution.
Holistic Review: Colleges will continue to employ a holistic review process, considering a wide range of factors beyond academic achievements, such as essays, extracurricular activities, and recommendations.
Adapting to Change: Students navigating the college admissions process must be prepared to adapt to evolving standardized testing policies, the impact of the FAFSA debacle, and the ongoing effects of the Supreme Court's decision on affirmative action.

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