The Most Valuable College Athletic Programs: A Hypothetical Valuation

College athletics, particularly football, have increasingly mirrored professional sports in terms of revenue generation and national attention. However, a fundamental difference remains: NCAA teams are, at least for now, not for sale. This article explores a hypothetical scenario: what if college football programs were bought and sold like professional sports franchises?

Methodology: Part Art, Part Science

To estimate the value of these programs, a methodology blending real-world transaction data with qualitative factors was employed. Professional sports transactions were used to gauge purchase prices relative to a team’s revenue over the past three available years of data. NFL and NBA sales guided ratios in the SEC and Big Ten, while the MLB and NHL were rough benchmarks in the ACC and Big 12. For each school in a Power 4 conference (plus Notre Dame), factors including prestige, championships, facility renovations, population trends, and realignment scenarios were considered. This approach treats Notre Dame more like the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston College more like the Kansas City Royals.

It's important to note that athletic departments isolate and report football revenue differently, making the numbers "squishy." Actual transactions are much more complicated than what this valuation presents. The objective is to estimate what a team would sell for, not its actual intrinsic value. Buyers often pay a premium due to the limited number of opportunities to own a sports team.

This sentiment would be even stronger in college football, where pre-established allegiances and irrational decisions already run deeper. Though Texas A&M just missed our $1 billion club, it’s easy to envision a few Aggies boosters artificially boosting the price to brag about spending 10 figures on their team. Or some Michigan fan paying extra to make sure the Wolverines out-priced Ohio State.

The Top 20 Most Valuable Programs

Here's a look at the estimated valuations of the top college athletic programs, considering their revenue, brand strength, and future potential:

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1. Texas: $2.38 Billion

Average football revenue: $183 millionThe Longhorns routinely lead the country in revenue and were the only team to top $200 million in the most recent financial reports. No program came within $25 million of Texas in either of the past two years. The Longhorns haven’t won a national title since 2005 but made the College Football Playoff semifinals each of the past two seasons and are among this preseason’s top championship contenders. Add in the SEC brand, and Texas looks like the safest investment.This valuation is comparable to the 2018 sale of the Carolina Panthers (almost $2.3 billion).

2. Georgia: $1.92 Billion

Average football revenue: $147 millionThough the Bulldogs are second in average revenue and an obvious heavyweight with only five losing seasons in the past 50 years, we still paused at the price and ranking our numbers suggested. Should we really value Georgia higher than the next three teams bunched together on our list?Demographic trends, particularly the state's population growth and its emergence as a top football talent producer, justify this high valuation. Georgia unlocking its potential as a perennial national power under Kirby Smart, gave the Bulldogs the edge as a long-term play.

3. Ohio State: $1.90 Billion

Average football revenue: $116 millionOhio State's income was weighed down by a 2023 season with only six home games, and it takes time for a spike from last season’s national championship run to show up on the balance sheet. The Buckeyes are also the sport’s most recession-proof program with only one losing season in the past 35 years.

4. Notre Dame: $1.85 Billion

Average football revenue: $143 millionThe income doesn’t reflect a jump in TV revenue thanks to the contract extension the Irish landed with NBC in 2023; it’s large enough to put Notre Dame’s paydays within striking distance of SEC/Big Ten programs. Last year’s Playoff run helps, too, not that we need to justify the lofty price tag for a team known for putting flakes of real gold on its helmets.

5. Michigan: $1.83 Billion

Average football revenue: $141 millionMichigan boasts the largest stadium and, according to our previous analysis, the largest fan base, too. So why are the Wolverines behind the rival Buckeyes? Their on-field product has been much more inconsistent (five unranked seasons since 2013), and they compete with Michigan State for the share of a smaller state with a weaker population growth. Michigan feels like a slightly riskier bet than Ohio State.

6. Alabama: $1.74 Billion

Average football revenue: $133 millionAlabama was the final team to earn our top revenue multiplier - 13x reported revenue - thanks to the tradition and prestige that predated Nick Saban and will continue to survive after him. Those factors mitigate the risks if the program regresses under Kalen DeBoer (or any of his successors, as we consider the long-term view).This price puts the Crimson Tide on par with the 2024 sale of the Baltimore Orioles ($1.725 billion) or the expected price tag for the Rays ($1.7 billion).

7. Oklahoma: $1.49 Billion

Average football revenue: $135 millionThough Oklahoma has spent decades as the most stable program outside of Ohio State, its dominance came in the Big Eight/12, not the SEC. Instead of being one of two unquestioned juggernauts, the Sooners are in danger of being lost in the shuffle (like they were last year). For those reasons, we slotted Oklahoma behind Alabama despite its slightly higher revenue.

8. USC: $1.40 Billion

*Average football revenue: $71.3 millionRevenue figures alone would put the Trojans’ value in the Nebraska-Wisconsin range ($800 million to $900 million). But those numbers don’t reflect the fact that they’re adding millions of dollars annually by shedding Pac-12 payouts and receiving full shares from the Big Ten. Add in brand power - where the Trojans are more like Alabama or Oklahoma historically - plus the value of Los Angeles, and this seemed like a reasonable landing spot.

9. Tennessee: $1.37 Billion

Average football revenue: $124.9 millionTexas, Notre Dame and Michigan are the only programs that reported more football revenue than Tennessee in the last fiscal year. The Volunteers, however, were outside the top 12 in some pre-pandemic accounting and have a recent history that we can politely call “volatile.”This price puts them slightly behind the 2023 valuation of the NHL’s Tampa Bay Lightning.

10. LSU: $1.23 Billion

Average football revenue: $102.9 millionAlthough we’d value the Tigers somewhere below the Texas-Alabama tier but above the Tennessees and Oklahomas, their average football revenue was only 13th nationally. LSU’s overall athletic department revenue was in the 8-10 range, which gave us more confidence in our ranking and price.

11. Penn State: $1.20 Billion

Average football revenue: $109.5 millionPenn State is working on upgrading Beaver Stadium with better amenities and a new club area. The renovation will cost up to $700 million but will pay off with increased revenue streams in our scenario. The Nittany Lions will be an interesting school to revisit in five years if they break through this season and live up to their national championship potential after last season’s semifinal run.

12. Florida: $1.08 Billion

Average football revenue: $98.5 millionThe Gators are also pursuing a major stadium upgrade that would significantly change the revenue picture; in January, the chairperson of the university’s board of trustees publicly floated a $1 billion price tag for the project. Florida’s downside remains its on-field product. USC is the only other program in our top 12 that has never made the College Football Playoff, and the Gators have suffered through four consecutive seasons without finishing ranked.

13. Auburn: $1.06 Billion

Average football revenue: $118.2 millionLike Florida, the Tigers have been in an on-field funk. The national championship trophy Auburn won with Cam Newton is almost old enough to get its driver's license. We slotted the Tigers behind the Gators because Florida remains the flagship school of a large, still-growing state. Auburn is No. 2 in Alabama, a state with a quarter of the residents (5.2 million).

14. Oregon: $990 Million

Average football revenue: $90.0 millionIn prestige and championship potential, the Ducks - the top team on this list that has never won a national title - are probably undervalued here. Nike has made them a national brand, and Dan Lanning has re-established them as a title contender. Though Oregon proved it belongs in the Big Ten by winning the conference championship in Year 1, the Ducks get a half-share payout from the league until the 2030 fiscal year. That reality kept them from being the 14th member of our $1 billion club.

15. Texas A&M: $973 Million

Average football revenue: $97.3 millionThe Aggies have the rabid fan base and demographic upside to be higher. Money has also never been an issue at a program that paid Jimbo Fisher the biggest buyout in college football history (about $77 million). But we’re also considering wins and losses because of the money victories bring. Texas A&M is arguably the nation’s biggest underachiever with only four top-five finishes and one national title (1939) since the Associated Press poll began in 1936 and zero conference titles since 1998.

16. Washington: $970 Million

Average football revenue: $107.8 millionLike Oregon, the Huskies have Big Ten status but no full Big Ten payday until 2030, and two coaches have led the team to the CFP. Both Washington and Seattle have swelling populations, which helps the sale price. But the location in Seattle cuts the other way, too, as the Huskies share a town with the Seahawks, Mariners and Kraken, plus the MLS’ Sounders FC. The Huskies’ market faces a higher risk of overcrowding than most peers.

17. Nebraska: $930 Million

Average football revenue: $116.3 millionAlthough the Cornhuskers usually rank in the top 10 in football revenue, they haven’t finished ranked since 2012 or even beaten a ranked team since 2016, and they’re almost 30 years removed from their last national championship. They also have failed to stand out in the Big Ten. Those factors make Nebraska a shakier investment; the program looks more like a depreciating asset than a team on the rise.The cost puts Nebraska between the sales prices of the NHL’s Ottawa Senators ($950 million in 2023) and Pittsburgh Penguins ($900 million in 2021).

18. Florida State: $867 Million

Average football revenue: $86.7 millionThe Seminoles’ financial future looks better after they settled their dueling lawsuits with the ACC. We can expect Florida State’s revenue to jump by eight figures under the conference’s new uneven distribution model, which tilts TV payouts toward the programs that attract the most viewers. The settlement agreement also set a clear, manageable exit fee for FSU to join the SEC, Big Ten or theoretical super league. If the Seminoles can stabilize themselves on the field, they should be in position to benefit in conference realignment or other changes to the landscape.

19. Wisconsin: $801 Million

Average football revenue: $100.1 millionThe Badgers are the final $100 million-a-year program on our list. The program has stalled (32-26 over the last five seasons) and lacks the tradition of Nebraska or the upside of Washington and Florida State. But even though the floor looks lower than it did a decade ago, it’s high enough for Wisconsin - the only program above Division III in the 20th most popular state - to belong in our top 20 with a big gap to the next tier.

20. Iowa: $709 Million

Average football revenue: $88.6 million

The Next Tier

The following programs, while valuable, fall just outside the top 20:

Michigan State: $708 million (Average football revenue: $88.5 million)
Clemson: $665 million (Average football revenue: $78.2 million)
Arkansas: $646 million (Average football revenue: $80.8 million)
Miami: $604 million (Average football revenue: $75.5 million)
Ole Miss: $591 million (Average football revenue: $73.8 million)
North Carolina: $572 million (Average football revenue: $63.6 million)
South Carolina: $563 million (Average football revenue: $70.3 million)
Minnesota: $562 million (Average football revenue: $80.2 million)
Utah: $539 million (Average football revenue: $77.0 million)
TCU: $523 million (Average football revenue: $74.7 million)

Conference Media Deals

The financial landscape of college athletics is heavily influenced by media deals. The Big Ten secured a $7 billion media deal in 2023 with CBS, NBC, and FOX, lasting through the 2029-30 athletic year. The SEC's 10-year, $3 billion deal with Disney, which owns ABC and ESPN, kicked off in the 2024-25 season.

Caveats and Considerations

It's crucial to remember that these valuations are hypothetical and based on a specific methodology. Factors not explicitly included in the model, such as donor influence, local market conditions, and the ever-changing landscape of college athletics, could significantly impact actual sale prices.

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