Mississippi State's NCAA Tournament Hopes: A Deep Dive

The NCAA Tournament is rapidly approaching and the question on many fans' minds is whether their team will be in or out. As Selection Sunday nears, teams are working to strengthen their tournament resumes. For Mississippi State, the path to the tournament involves navigating a challenging schedule and improving their standing in key metrics.

Understanding the Metrics

Several metrics are used to evaluate a team's potential for an at-large selection to the field of 68. These metrics include:

NET Rankings: A tool used by the NCAA selection committee to evaluate teams.
Resume Metric Average (RMA): An average of KPI (Key Performance Indicator), Strength of Record, and Wins Above Bubble.
Quadrant Records: Wins and losses are categorized into four quadrants based on the NET ranking of the opponent and the game location.

Current Status

As of late February, Mississippi State finds itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Several factors contribute to this status:

Overall Record: The Bulldogs have been a major disappointment, owning an 18-10 overall record with a 5-9 SEC mark.
NET Ranking: State sits at No. 38 in the NET.
Quadrant 1 Wins: MSU has two Quad 1 wins against Kentucky and Tennessee.
Quadrant 2 Losses: MSU has one Quad 2 losses.
Strength of Schedule: State has a strong overall Strength of Schedule.

The Path to the Tournament

Realistically, Mississippi State's hopes for an at-large bid hinge on a significant turnaround and a strong finish to the season. Here's a breakdown of what the Bulldogs need to do:

Improving the Resume

Quality Wins: The Bulldogs need to add more quality wins to their resume, particularly against Quad 1 opponents. Every remaining game for the Bulldogs is of Quad 1 or Quad 2 quality.
Avoiding Bad Losses: Losses against lower-ranked opponents can severely damage a team's tournament chances.
SEC Tournament Performance: A deep run in the SEC Tournament, ideally ending with a championship, would significantly boost their chances of making the NCAA Tournament.

Key Games to Watch

Several upcoming games will be critical for Mississippi State's tournament hopes:

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At Texas A&M: This game is slated to be Quad 2.
Vs LSU: This game will be Quad 1.

Bracketology Projections

Some bracketology projections have Mississippi State as a No. 12 seed and one of the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament, meaning it would have to play a play-in game before the first round.
Other projections did not have Mississippi State in the NCAA Tournament.

Examining Other Bubble Teams

Several other teams are also vying for at-large bids, making the competition even tougher for Mississippi State. Some of these teams include:

Kentucky Wildcats
Georgia Bulldogs
Missouri Tigers
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas Longhorns
Auburn Tigers
Iowa Hawkeyes
UCLA Bruins
Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State Buckeyes
USC Trojans
NC State Wolfpack
Miami Hurricanes
SMU Mustangs
Clemson Tigers
California Golden Bears
Virginia Tech Hokies
UCF Knights
TCU Horned Frogs
Cincinnati Bearcats
Seton Hall Pirates
Utah State Aggies
Saint Mary's Gaels
Saint Louis Billikens
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Santa Clara Broncos
New Mexico Lobos
San Diego State Aztecs
VCU Rams
Belmont Bruins

Key Bubble Games

Several bubble matchups took place in late February that could impact Mississippi State's tournament chances:

New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Texas Longhorns
LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Stanford Cardinal vs. SMU Mustangs
UCF Knights vs. Baylor Bears

SEC Bubble Teams: A Closer Look

Several SEC teams are on the bubble, making in-conference comparisons important for the selection committee:

Kentucky Wildcats: Their resume features six Quadrant 1 victories, placing them inside the top 30 nationally in our resume average, and sixth-best in an SEC that projects to send as many as 11 teams to the tournament. Of their 10 losses, seven came to Quadrant 1A foes.
Georgia Bulldogs: They now sit mid-30s in the overall resume rankings, with four wins against Quadrant 1 foes, ranking seventh in resume average within what should be at least a 10-bid SEC.
Missouri Tigers: The Tigers have now cracked the top nine of SEC teams in the resume average (borderline top 40 nationally), a favorable spot with the conference projected for 10 to 11 tournament entries.
Texas A&M Aggies: Parsing the Aggies' resume against other SEC bubble teams Texas and Auburn will not be an easy task for the committee.
Texas Longhorns: The consensus forecast still sets their at-large chances in the 70% range, up from 45% earlier in the month but still down from their peak. They are also neck and neck with Missouri, Texas A&M and Auburn in the SEC resume rankings (all are borderline top 40 nationally), so their tournament fate still hangs in the balance.
Auburn Tigers: Auburn has an interesting case, but it has all but run out of wiggle room: Though the Tigers have five Quadrant 1 wins against the nation's fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and are borderline top 40 in the national resume ranking average, their 14 losses are the most among the SEC bubble tier.

Historical Context

Mississippi State women's basketball has made the NCAA Tournament twice under coach Sam Purcell. In 2023, MSU won in the First Four and then the first round before losing to Notre Dame in the second round. Last season, No. 9 seed Mississippi State defeated No. 8 California in the first round, then lost to No. 1 Southern Cal in the second round.

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